Forecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and international sources indicate a maximum temperature near 35°C for Guangzhou on September 18, aligning with the market's leading 50.5% implied probability for that threshold. Late-summer subtropical high pressure and reduced cloud cover support daytime heating above the 31.8°C climatological average high, while elevated humidity may moderate the peak. Recent runs show consistency around 33–35°C with limited model spread, though afternoon convection or minor steering shifts could cap or exceed this range. Historical records reach 35.7°C on the date, providing precedent for the 27.5% odds on 36°C. Updated guidance ahead of the 24-hour window will refine these trader-consensus probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日9月18日の広州の最高気温は？
9月18日の広州の最高気温は？
35℃ 55%
36℃ 27%
34°C 16%
37℃ 4%
新規
$11,215 Vol.
新規
$11,215 Vol.
2026/09/18
28°C以下
<1%
29℃
<1%
30℃
1%
31℃
<1%
32℃
1%
33℃
3%
34°C
16%
35℃
55%
36℃
27%
37℃
4%
38°C以上
1%
35℃ 55%
36℃ 27%
34°C 16%
37℃ 4%
新規
$11,215 Vol.
新規
$11,215 Vol.
2026/09/18
28°C以下
$1,637 Vol.
<1%
29℃
$149 Vol.
<1%
30℃
$653 Vol.
1%
31℃
$276 Vol.
<1%
32℃
$283 Vol.
1%
33℃
$597 Vol.
3%
34°C
$570 Vol.
16%
35℃
$2,834 Vol.
55%
36℃
$2,949 Vol.
27%
37℃
$843 Vol.
4%
38°C以上
$425 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and international sources indicate a maximum temperature near 35°C for Guangzhou on September 18, aligning with the market's leading 50.5% implied probability for that threshold. Late-summer subtropical high pressure and reduced cloud cover support daytime heating above the 31.8°C climatological average high, while elevated humidity may moderate the peak. Recent runs show consistency around 33–35°C with limited model spread, though afternoon convection or minor steering shifts could cap or exceed this range. Historical records reach 35.7°C on the date, providing precedent for the 27.5% odds on 36°C. Updated guidance ahead of the 24-hour window will refine these trader-consensus probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Sep 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
音量
$11,215終了日
2026/09/18マーケット開始日
Sep 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and international sources indicate a maximum temperature near 35°C for Guangzhou on September 18, aligning with the market's leading 50.5% implied probability for that threshold. Late-summer subtropical high pressure and reduced cloud cover support daytime heating above the 31.8°C climatological average high, while elevated humidity may moderate the peak. Recent runs show consistency around 33–35°C with limited model spread, though afternoon convection or minor steering shifts could cap or exceed this range. Historical records reach 35.7°C on the date, providing precedent for the 27.5% odds on 36°C. Updated guidance ahead of the 24-hour window will refine these trader-consensus probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$11,215終了日
2026/09/18マーケット開始日
Sep 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ETForecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and international sources indicate a maximum temperature near 35°C for Guangzhou on September 18, aligning with the market's leading 50.5% implied probability for that threshold. Late-summer subtropical high pressure and reduced cloud cover support daytime heating above the 31.8°C climatological average high, while elevated humidity may moderate the peak. Recent runs show consistency around 33–35°C with limited model spread, though afternoon convection or minor steering shifts could cap or exceed this range. Historical records reach 35.7°C on the date, providing precedent for the 27.5% odds on 36°C. Updated guidance ahead of the 24-hour window will refine these trader-consensus probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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