Latest numerical weather prediction models, including runs from the Finnish Meteorological Institute and ECMWF, point to a daytime maximum near 23–24 °C on August 6 under a southerly flow bringing mild maritime air, with limited cloud cover allowing brief warming before any evening showers develop. Recent observations show highs of 20–22 °C over the prior days amid a stable late-summer pattern, supporting the market’s clustering around 23–25 °C while the modest 14 % probability on 25 °C reflects residual model spread and the chance of stronger insolation. Historical August averages near 19–20 °C underscore why traders assign little weight to extremes above 26 °C absent an unexpected ridge buildup. Updated short-range guidance and radar trends over the next 12–18 hours will be the key catalysts for any further shifts in implied probabilities.