Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 19°C in Madrid on May 5, 2026, driven by the latest Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) forecast specifying a daily maximum of 19°C under partly cloudy skies, light northerly winds at 10 km/h, and zero precipitation risk. This positioning reflects model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs showing a stable continental air mass with cool advection from the north, keeping conditions below seasonal May averages of 21–23°C. Observations at Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport—the market's resolution source via Wunderground—align with this cap as the afternoon peak passes without intensifying solar heating. Realistic challenges include abrupt wind shifts allowing downslope warming or prolonged clear skies, though hourly guidance indicates negligible odds as evening approaches.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Madrid on May 5?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 5?
19°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$114,634 Vol.
$114,634 Vol.
2026/05/05
14°C or below
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
Yes
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C or higher
No
19°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$114,634 Vol.
$114,634 Vol.
2026/05/05
14°C or below
$704 Vol.
No
15°C
$4,494 Vol.
No
16°C
$5,785 Vol.
No
17°C
$7,588 Vol.
No
18°C
$10,393 Vol.
No
19°C
$13,723 Vol.
Yes
20°C
$12,687 Vol.
No
21°C
$12,597 Vol.
No
22°C
$8,065 Vol.
No
23°C
$19,353 Vol.
No
24°C or higher
$19,244 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 19°C in Madrid on May 5, 2026, driven by the latest Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) forecast specifying a daily maximum of 19°C under partly cloudy skies, light northerly winds at 10 km/h, and zero precipitation risk. This positioning reflects model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs showing a stable continental air mass with cool advection from the north, keeping conditions below seasonal May averages of 21–23°C. Observations at Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport—the market's resolution source via Wunderground—align with this cap as the afternoon peak passes without intensifying solar heating. Realistic challenges include abrupt wind shifts allowing downslope warming or prolonged clear skies, though hourly guidance indicates negligible odds as evening approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： May 3, 2026, 12:33 AM ET
音量
$114,634終了日
2026/05/05マーケット開始日
May 3, 2026, 12:33 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 19°C in Madrid on May 5, 2026, driven by the latest Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) forecast specifying a daily maximum of 19°C under partly cloudy skies, light northerly winds at 10 km/h, and zero precipitation risk. This positioning reflects model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs showing a stable continental air mass with cool advection from the north, keeping conditions below seasonal May averages of 21–23°C. Observations at Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport—the market's resolution source via Wunderground—align with this cap as the afternoon peak passes without intensifying solar heating. Realistic challenges include abrupt wind shifts allowing downslope warming or prolonged clear skies, though hourly guidance indicates negligible odds as evening approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$114,634終了日
2026/05/05マーケット開始日
May 3, 2026, 12:33 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 19°C in Madrid on May 5, 2026, driven by the latest Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) forecast specifying a daily maximum of 19°C under partly cloudy skies, light northerly winds at 10 km/h, and zero precipitation risk. This positioning reflects model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs showing a stable continental air mass with cool advection from the north, keeping conditions below seasonal May averages of 21–23°C. Observations at Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport—the market's resolution source via Wunderground—align with this cap as the afternoon peak passes without intensifying solar heating. Realistic challenges include abrupt wind shifts allowing downslope warming or prolonged clear skies, though hourly guidance indicates negligible odds as evening approaches.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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