Tensions between Iran, the United States, and Israel have driven repeated airspace restrictions since early 2026. Following US and Israeli strikes on Iranian military targets beginning February 28, Iran closed its Tehran FIR to most commercial flights for more than seven weeks, with neighboring states including Iraq, Kuwait, and Bahrain issuing parallel restrictions that rerouted regional traffic. Partial reopening of eastern routes and limited domestic operations began around April 22 amid reported diplomatic talks, though airlines continued avoiding the area. As of mid-May, ongoing regional military alerts and potential escalation risks remain the primary factors shaping trader assessments of whether Iran will implement another qualifying closure by upcoming resolution dates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Iran bans small private aircraft flights amid regional tensions
May 15 jumps to 14%5%
Iran issued a notice banning small private aircraft from flying in the country, with exceptions for the oil industry and emergency medical flights. This indicated heightened security concerns but did not constitute a major airspace closure affecting commercial flights.
Iran resumes commercial flights at Tehran’s international airport after war hiatus
May 15 plunges to 4%28%
On May 9, 2026, Iranian state media reported the resumption of commercial flights at Imam Khomeini International Airport in Tehran for the first time since the war with the United States and Israel began. This reopening indicated that Iran's airspace was not broadly closed and commercial aviation was operational, reducing the likelihood of a major airspace closure by the May 15 deadline.
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問