National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models have converged on a nocturnal low around 52°F at New York City's LaGuardia Airport station for May 15, anchoring trader consensus at 33.5% implied probability for 52-53°F amid partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly winds following recent frontal passages. A week of below-normal temperatures, influenced by a persistent upper-level trough and weakening polar vortex remnants, has established a cooler baseline against mid-May climatological norms near 54°F. High market uncertainty arises from variability in cloud cover—clearer conditions enabling radiative cooling toward 48-49°F (4.6%) or increased low clouds and onshore flow lifting lows to 54-55°F (10%)—with key resolution hinging on overnight observations; watch the next NWS forecast discussion for model refinements.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Lowest temperature in NYC on May 15?
Lowest temperature in NYC on May 15?
52～53°F 37%
50～51°F 23%
54〜55°F 22%
48～49°F 3.7%
新規
新規
2026/05/15
41°F or below
<1%
42〜43°F
1%
44-45°F
1%
46〜47°F
1%
48～49°F
4%
50～51°F
23%
52～53°F
37%
54〜55°F
22%
56～57°F
3%
58～59°F
<1%
華氏60度以上
<1%
52～53°F 37%
50～51°F 23%
54〜55°F 22%
48～49°F 3.7%
新規
新規
2026/05/15
41°F or below
$1,614 Vol.
<1%
42〜43°F
$80 Vol.
1%
44-45°F
$27 Vol.
1%
46〜47°F
$80 Vol.
1%
48～49°F
$280 Vol.
4%
50～51°F
$70 Vol.
23%
52～53°F
$102 Vol.
37%
54〜55°F
$104 Vol.
22%
56～57°F
$388 Vol.
3%
58～59°F
$951 Vol.
<1%
華氏60度以上
$499 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models have converged on a nocturnal low around 52°F at New York City's LaGuardia Airport station for May 15, anchoring trader consensus at 33.5% implied probability for 52-53°F amid partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly winds following recent frontal passages. A week of below-normal temperatures, influenced by a persistent upper-level trough and weakening polar vortex remnants, has established a cooler baseline against mid-May climatological norms near 54°F. High market uncertainty arises from variability in cloud cover—clearer conditions enabling radiative cooling toward 48-49°F (4.6%) or increased low clouds and onshore flow lifting lows to 54-55°F (10%)—with key resolution hinging on overnight observations; watch the next NWS forecast discussion for model refinements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
音量
$4,195終了日
2026/05/15マーケット開始日
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models have converged on a nocturnal low around 52°F at New York City's LaGuardia Airport station for May 15, anchoring trader consensus at 33.5% implied probability for 52-53°F amid partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly winds following recent frontal passages. A week of below-normal temperatures, influenced by a persistent upper-level trough and weakening polar vortex remnants, has established a cooler baseline against mid-May climatological norms near 54°F. High market uncertainty arises from variability in cloud cover—clearer conditions enabling radiative cooling toward 48-49°F (4.6%) or increased low clouds and onshore flow lifting lows to 54-55°F (10%)—with key resolution hinging on overnight observations; watch the next NWS forecast discussion for model refinements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$4,195終了日
2026/05/15マーケット開始日
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETNational Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models have converged on a nocturnal low around 52°F at New York City's LaGuardia Airport station for May 15, anchoring trader consensus at 33.5% implied probability for 52-53°F amid partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly winds following recent frontal passages. A week of below-normal temperatures, influenced by a persistent upper-level trough and weakening polar vortex remnants, has established a cooler baseline against mid-May climatological norms near 54°F. High market uncertainty arises from variability in cloud cover—clearer conditions enabling radiative cooling toward 48-49°F (4.6%) or increased low clouds and onshore flow lifting lows to 54-55°F (10%)—with key resolution hinging on overnight observations; watch the next NWS forecast discussion for model refinements.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問