National Weather Service observations and ensemble guidance from the GFS and ECMWF models place the overnight minimum temperature at LaGuardia Airport firmly in the 53–56 °F range, driving the near-certain market consensus on the 54–55 °F bin. This positioning reflects consistent model runs showing mild southerly flow and limited radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies, well above seasonal normals for mid-May. The dominant outcome remains resilient because surface observations through the night have tracked closely with these forecasts, leaving little room for deviation. Only an unexpected sharp increase in cloud cover or localized urban heat-island effects could push the recorded low outside this narrow window before final NWS verification.