Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs show the overnight low in New York City on May 18 settling in the mid-60s, with the 64–65 °F bin holding the highest market-implied odds at 29.5 %. A broad warm-air advection pattern ahead of an approaching trough, combined with light southerly winds and only scattered cloud cover, is limiting nocturnal radiative cooling and keeping surface temperatures elevated. Dew-point values near 60 °F further support this mild minimum, while historical mid-May climatology for Central Park places average lows closer to 53 °F. Model spread remains modest, primarily around the timing of any late-evening clearing, which explains why the 62–63 °F and 66–67 °F bins each trade near 23.5 %. Traders are therefore weighting the current consensus forecast most heavily while monitoring the next NWS update for any shift in boundary-layer moisture or wind regime.