Recent forecast models and surface observations point to an overnight minimum in Wellington around 11–12°C on September 16, driven by moderate southerly flow advecting cooler maritime air, combined with partial cloud cover that limits radiational cooling. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering near these values, with minor spread arising from variable wind speeds and dew-point depressions that could allow brief dips toward 10°C or hold the floor at 12°C. Historical September climatology places typical minima near 9–10°C, so current conditions reflect a modest positive anomaly. Traders appear to weigh the latest model runs against potential clearing skies overnight, keeping implied probabilities closely matched between the leading outcomes while lower thresholds remain viable if winds weaken further.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日9月16日のウェリントンの最低気温は？
9月16日のウェリントンの最低気温は？
7℃以下 95%
9°C 90%
10°C 90%
12°C 51%
新規
新規
2026/09/16
7℃以下
95%
8℃
44%
9°C
90%
10°C
90%
11℃
50%
12°C
51%
13℃
<1%
14℃
<1%
15℃
<1%
16°C
<1%
17℃以上
<1%
7℃以下 95%
9°C 90%
10°C 90%
12°C 51%
新規
新規
2026/09/16
7℃以下
$0 Vol.
95%
8℃
$32 Vol.
44%
9°C
$0 Vol.
90%
10°C
$58 Vol.
90%
11℃
$0 Vol.
50%
12°C
$0 Vol.
51%
13℃
$2,395 Vol.
<1%
14℃
$0 Vol.
<1%
15℃
$16 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$76 Vol.
<1%
17℃以上
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models and surface observations point to an overnight minimum in Wellington around 11–12°C on September 16, driven by moderate southerly flow advecting cooler maritime air, combined with partial cloud cover that limits radiational cooling. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering near these values, with minor spread arising from variable wind speeds and dew-point depressions that could allow brief dips toward 10°C or hold the floor at 12°C. Historical September climatology places typical minima near 9–10°C, so current conditions reflect a modest positive anomaly. Traders appear to weigh the latest model runs against potential clearing skies overnight, keeping implied probabilities closely matched between the leading outcomes while lower thresholds remain viable if winds weaken further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
音量
$2,577終了日
2026/09/16マーケット開始日
Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models and surface observations point to an overnight minimum in Wellington around 11–12°C on September 16, driven by moderate southerly flow advecting cooler maritime air, combined with partial cloud cover that limits radiational cooling. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering near these values, with minor spread arising from variable wind speeds and dew-point depressions that could allow brief dips toward 10°C or hold the floor at 12°C. Historical September climatology places typical minima near 9–10°C, so current conditions reflect a modest positive anomaly. Traders appear to weigh the latest model runs against potential clearing skies overnight, keeping implied probabilities closely matched between the leading outcomes while lower thresholds remain viable if winds weaken further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$2,577終了日
2026/09/16マーケット開始日
Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ETRecent forecast models and surface observations point to an overnight minimum in Wellington around 11–12°C on September 16, driven by moderate southerly flow advecting cooler maritime air, combined with partial cloud cover that limits radiational cooling. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering near these values, with minor spread arising from variable wind speeds and dew-point depressions that could allow brief dips toward 10°C or hold the floor at 12°C. Historical September climatology places typical minima near 9–10°C, so current conditions reflect a modest positive anomaly. Traders appear to weigh the latest model runs against potential clearing skies overnight, keeping implied probabilities closely matched between the leading outcomes while lower thresholds remain viable if winds weaken further.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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