Ongoing border tensions rooted in the 2025 Cambodian–Thai dispute over Preah Vihear and nearby temples continue to shape trader assessments of whether Thailand will conduct strikes by the resolution date. Recent incidents include Thai forces opening fire in February 2026 after alleging a Cambodian grenade launch and seizing a fishing vessel, both denied by Phnom Penh as operational errors or territorial violations. Thai security officials have warned of Cambodian military build-ups, including advanced weaponry deliveries, while Bangkok has signaled readiness for deeper retaliatory actions if rocket systems advance. A late-2025 ceasefire and ASEAN-mediated talks remain fragile amid mutual accusations, with any escalation in cross-border artillery, drone activity, or troop movements likely to influence the implied probability reflected in current market pricing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$70,940 Vol.
2026/06/30
2026年6月30日
4%
$70,940 Vol.
2026年6月30日
$26,527 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Thailand initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Cambodian soil or any Cambodian embassy or consulate by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Cambodian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Thai ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.Ongoing border tensions rooted in the 2025 Cambodian–Thai dispute over Preah Vihear and nearby temples continue to shape trader assessments of whether Thailand will conduct strikes by the resolution date. Recent incidents include Thai forces opening fire in February 2026 after alleging a Cambodian grenade launch and seizing a fishing vessel, both denied by Phnom Penh as operational errors or territorial violations. Thai security officials have warned of Cambodian military build-ups, including advanced weaponry deliveries, while Bangkok has signaled readiness for deeper retaliatory actions if rocket systems advance. A late-2025 ceasefire and ASEAN-mediated talks remain fragile amid mutual accusations, with any escalation in cross-border artillery, drone activity, or troop movements likely to influence the implied probability reflected in current market pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Thailand initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Cambodian soil or any Cambodian embassy or consulate by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Cambodian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Thai ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Cambodian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Thai ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.
マーケット開始日： Dec 29, 2025, 4:45 PM ET
音量
$70,940終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Dec 29, 2025, 4:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Thailand initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Cambodian soil or any Cambodian embassy or consulate by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Cambodian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Thai ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.Ongoing border tensions rooted in the 2025 Cambodian–Thai dispute over Preah Vihear and nearby temples continue to shape trader assessments of whether Thailand will conduct strikes by the resolution date. Recent incidents include Thai forces opening fire in February 2026 after alleging a Cambodian grenade launch and seizing a fishing vessel, both denied by Phnom Penh as operational errors or territorial violations. Thai security officials have warned of Cambodian military build-ups, including advanced weaponry deliveries, while Bangkok has signaled readiness for deeper retaliatory actions if rocket systems advance. A late-2025 ceasefire and ASEAN-mediated talks remain fragile amid mutual accusations, with any escalation in cross-border artillery, drone activity, or troop movements likely to influence the implied probability reflected in current market pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Thailand initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Cambodian soil or any Cambodian embassy or consulate by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Cambodian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Thai ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Cambodian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Thai ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.
音量
$70,940終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Dec 29, 2025, 4:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing border tensions rooted in the 2025 Cambodian–Thai dispute over Preah Vihear and nearby temples continue to shape trader assessments of whether Thailand will conduct strikes by the resolution date. Recent incidents include Thai forces opening fire in February 2026 after alleging a Cambodian grenade launch and seizing a fishing vessel, both denied by Phnom Penh as operational errors or territorial violations. Thai security officials have warned of Cambodian military build-ups, including advanced weaponry deliveries, while Bangkok has signaled readiness for deeper retaliatory actions if rocket systems advance. A late-2025 ceasefire and ASEAN-mediated talks remain fragile amid mutual accusations, with any escalation in cross-border artillery, drone activity, or troop movements likely to influence the implied probability reflected in current market pricing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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