Constitutional requirements for adding a new U.S. state—congressional legislation, presidential approval, and typically local consent—create insurmountable barriers for Venezuela, a sovereign South American nation with no path to incorporation. Recent U.S. military action in January 2026 that removed Nicolás Maduro and installed interim leadership under Delcy Rodríguez prompted brief speculation from President Trump about statehood in March and May, but Venezuelan officials promptly rejected the notion, diplomatic ties resumed in March without any annexation framework, and no legislative steps have followed. Traders assign overwhelming probability to “No” because such an outcome would demand unprecedented shifts in bilateral policy, Venezuelan consent, and domestic U.S. politics that show no signs of materializing. Late developments such as sustained U.S. influence over Venezuelan governance or formal territorial proposals could theoretically alter odds, though both remain remote given current trajectories.