Persistent geopolitical tensions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, including recent kinetic strikes, naval restrictions, and mine-clearance operations, have driven sharply reduced commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping data show single-digit daily transits in early May, with only nine vessels recorded on May 11 amid vessel avoidance, dark-fleet activity, and over 600 tankers stranded in the Persian Gulf. These conditions position the 20-39 weekly total as the market’s leading outcome at 60.5% implied probability, reflecting sustained risk aversion that continues to constrain energy trade flows and tanker movements. Traders are monitoring potential de-escalation signals ahead of upcoming diplomatic developments that could alter throughput.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트20-39 61%
40-59 29%
60-79 5.0%
<20 4.1%
$79,642 거래량
$79,642 거래량
2026.05.17
<20
4%
20-39
61%
40-59
29%
60-79
5%
80+
2%
20-39 61%
40-59 29%
60-79 5.0%
<20 4.1%
$79,642 거래량
$79,642 거래량
2026.05.17
<20
$28,208 거래량
4%
20-39
$13,345 거래량
61%
40-59
$14,553 거래량
29%
60-79
$12,054 거래량
5%
80+
$11,482 거래량
2%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, including recent kinetic strikes, naval restrictions, and mine-clearance operations, have driven sharply reduced commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping data show single-digit daily transits in early May, with only nine vessels recorded on May 11 amid vessel avoidance, dark-fleet activity, and over 600 tankers stranded in the Persian Gulf. These conditions position the 20-39 weekly total as the market’s leading outcome at 60.5% implied probability, reflecting sustained risk aversion that continues to constrain energy trade flows and tanker movements. Traders are monitoring potential de-escalation signals ahead of upcoming diplomatic developments that could alter throughput.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
마켓 개설일: May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
거래량
$79,642종료일
2026.05.17마켓 개설일
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, including recent kinetic strikes, naval restrictions, and mine-clearance operations, have driven sharply reduced commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping data show single-digit daily transits in early May, with only nine vessels recorded on May 11 amid vessel avoidance, dark-fleet activity, and over 600 tankers stranded in the Persian Gulf. These conditions position the 20-39 weekly total as the market’s leading outcome at 60.5% implied probability, reflecting sustained risk aversion that continues to constrain energy trade flows and tanker movements. Traders are monitoring potential de-escalation signals ahead of upcoming diplomatic developments that could alter throughput.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
거래량
$79,642종료일
2026.05.17마켓 개설일
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent geopolitical tensions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, including recent kinetic strikes, naval restrictions, and mine-clearance operations, have driven sharply reduced commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping data show single-digit daily transits in early May, with only nine vessels recorded on May 11 amid vessel avoidance, dark-fleet activity, and over 600 tankers stranded in the Persian Gulf. These conditions position the 20-39 weekly total as the market’s leading outcome at 60.5% implied probability, reflecting sustained risk aversion that continues to constrain energy trade flows and tanker movements. Traders are monitoring potential de-escalation signals ahead of upcoming diplomatic developments that could alter throughput.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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