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세계·중동

2026년 말 이란 지도자?

icon for 2026년 말 이란 지도자?
세계·중동

2026년 말 이란 지도자?

모즈타바 하메네이 64.7%

레자 팔라비 8%

모하마드-바게르 갈리바프 4.8%

국가원수 없음 2.8%

Polymarket

$8,657,349 거래량

모즈타바 하메네이 64.7%

레자 팔라비 8%

모하마드-바게르 갈리바프 4.8%

국가원수 없음 2.8%

Polymarket

$8,657,349 거래량

모즈타바 하메네이

$2,077,019 거래량

65%

레자 팔라비

$208,822 거래량

8%

모하마드-바게르 갈리바프

$228,268 거래량

5%

국가원수 없음

$488,164 거래량

3%

아바스 아라그치

$213,768 거래량

2%

아흐마드 바히디

$299,316 거래량

2%

마수드 페제쉬키안

$326,254 거래량

2%

하산 로하니

$353,230 거래량

1%

마무드 아마디네자드

$142,570 거래량

1%

알리레자 아라피

$860,892 거래량

1%

나비드 쇼말리

$87,163 거래량

1%

하산 호메이니

$813,099 거래량

1%

마르얌 라자비

$318,646 거래량

1%

마수드 라자비

$75,414 거래량

1%

골람알리 하다드아델

$90,845 거래량

1%

모함마드 하타미

$448,007 거래량

<1%

사데흐 라리자니

$195,597 거래량

<1%

알리 아스가르 헤자지

$93,241 거래량

<1%

무함마드 미르바키리

$290,404 거래량

<1%

하산 샤리아트마다리

$179,711 거래량

<1%

레자 피르자데

$52,010 거래량

<1%

모스타파 포르모하마디

$100,091 거래량

<1%

사이드 잘릴리

$83,015 거래량

<1%

모흐센 아라키

$64,445 거래량

<1%

세예드 호세인 무사비안

$52,716 거래량

<1%

무스타파 히즈리

$33,414 거래량

<1%

알리 모타하리

$87,072 거래량

<1%

사데그 마흐술리

$74,398 거래량

<1%

나시르 호세이니

$39,291 거래량

<1%

아흐마드 호세이니 호라사니

$43,666 거래량

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Following the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in U.S.-Israeli strikes, Iran's Assembly of Experts rapidly elected his son Mojtaba as successor to maintain institutional continuity amid heightened external pressures. This outcome has anchored trader consensus on Mojtaba retaining the post at the end of 2026, reflecting his established ties to security institutions and the Revolutionary Guards. Other candidates, such as clerical figures or reformist alternatives, register far lower implied probabilities due to narrower bases of support within the current power structure. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and any shifts in regional tensions over the coming months remain the primary variables that could alter this positioning before year-end resolution.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
거래량
$8,657,349
종료일
2026.12.31
마켓 개설일
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Following the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in U.S.-Israeli strikes, Iran's Assembly of Experts rapidly elected his son Mojtaba as successor to maintain institutional continuity amid heightened external pressures. This outcome has anchored trader consensus on Mojtaba retaining the post at the end of 2026, reflecting his established ties to security institutions and the Revolutionary Guards. Other candidates, such as clerical figures or reformist alternatives, register far lower implied probabilities due to narrower bases of support within the current power structure. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and any shifts in regional tensions over the coming months remain the primary variables that could alter this positioning before year-end resolution.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
거래량
$8,657,349
종료일
2026.12.31
마켓 개설일
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

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자주 묻는 질문

"2026년 말 이란 지도자?"은 32개의 가능한 결과가 있는 Polymarket의 예측 마켓으로, 트레이더들이 어떤 결과가 발생할지에 따라 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 현재 선두 결과는 65%의 "모즈타바 하메네이"이며, 이어서 8%의 "레자 팔라비"입니다. 가격은 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영합니다. 예를 들어 65¢에 거래되는 주식은 마켓이 해당 결과에 65%의 확률을 부여함을 의미합니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들이 새로운 진전과 정보에 반응함에 따라 지속적으로 변화합니다. 정확한 결과의 주식은 마켓 정산 시 각 $1에 교환 가능합니다.

오늘 현재 "2026년 말 이란 지도자?"은 총 $8.7 million의 거래량을 생성했습니다 마켓이 Mar 1, 2026에 시작된 이후. 이 수준의 거래 활동은 Polymarket 커뮤니티의 강한 참여를 반영하며 현재 확률이 깊은 참가자 풀에 의해 정보에 기반하도록 보장합니다. 이 페이지에서 실시간 가격 변동을 추적하고 모든 결과에 직접 거래할 수 있습니다.

"2026년 말 이란 지도자?"에서 거래하려면 이 페이지에 나열된 32개의 가용 결과를 탐색하세요. 각 결과에는 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타내는 현재 가격이 표시됩니다. 포지션을 잡으려면 가장 가능성이 높다고 생각하는 결과를 선택하고, 찬성이면 "Yes", 반대이면 "No"를 선택하고, 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 마켓이 정산될 때 선택한 결과가 맞으면 "Yes" 주식은 각 $1을 지급합니다. 틀리면 $0을 지급합니다. 수익을 확정하거나 손실을 줄이고 싶다면 정산 전 언제든지 주식을 매도할 수 있습니다.

"2026년 말 이란 지도자?"의 현재 유력 후보는 65%의 "모즈타바 하메네이"이며, 마켓이 해당 결과에 65%의 확률을 부여합니다. 두 번째로 가까운 결과는 8%의 "레자 팔라비"입니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들의 주식 매수 및 매도에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트되어 가장 가능성 있는 결과에 대한 최신 집단 시각을 반영합니다. 새로운 정보가 나타남에 따라 확률이 어떻게 변화하는지 자주 확인하거나 이 페이지를 북마크하세요.

"2026년 말 이란 지도자?"의 정산 규칙은 각 결과가 승자로 선언되기 위해 정확히 무엇이 일어나야 하는지를 정의합니다 — 결과를 결정하는 데 사용되는 공식 데이터 소스를 포함합니다. 이 페이지의 댓글 위 "규칙" 섹션에서 완전한 정산 기준을 검토할 수 있습니다. 거래 전 규칙을 주의 깊게 읽는 것을 권장합니다. 이 마켓이 어떻게 정산되는지를 관리하는 정확한 조건, 예외 사항, 출처를 명시하고 있습니다.