Recent US and Israeli airstrikes, including the June 2025 Operation Midnight Hammer and the February-March 2026 follow-on campaign, have severely damaged Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with weaponization sites and related infrastructure. These operations halted uranium enrichment, forced withdrawal of IAEA inspectors, and destroyed much of the centrifuge capacity and scientific expertise needed for rapid weapon development. Iran's enriched uranium stockpile remains largely inaccessible under rubble, with no confirmed recovery or testing activity through mid-2026. This degradation of capabilities, reinforced by the April 2026 ceasefire and assessments showing Iran remains months away from a viable device, underpins trader consensus that a nuclear test before 2027 is improbable.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$192,428 거래량
$192,428 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$192,428 거래량
$192,428 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US and Israeli airstrikes, including the June 2025 Operation Midnight Hammer and the February-March 2026 follow-on campaign, have severely damaged Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with weaponization sites and related infrastructure. These operations halted uranium enrichment, forced withdrawal of IAEA inspectors, and destroyed much of the centrifuge capacity and scientific expertise needed for rapid weapon development. Iran's enriched uranium stockpile remains largely inaccessible under rubble, with no confirmed recovery or testing activity through mid-2026. This degradation of capabilities, reinforced by the April 2026 ceasefire and assessments showing Iran remains months away from a viable device, underpins trader consensus that a nuclear test before 2027 is improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
거래량
$192,428종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US and Israeli airstrikes, including the June 2025 Operation Midnight Hammer and the February-March 2026 follow-on campaign, have severely damaged Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with weaponization sites and related infrastructure. These operations halted uranium enrichment, forced withdrawal of IAEA inspectors, and destroyed much of the centrifuge capacity and scientific expertise needed for rapid weapon development. Iran's enriched uranium stockpile remains largely inaccessible under rubble, with no confirmed recovery or testing activity through mid-2026. This degradation of capabilities, reinforced by the April 2026 ceasefire and assessments showing Iran remains months away from a viable device, underpins trader consensus that a nuclear test before 2027 is improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$192,428종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US and Israeli airstrikes, including the June 2025 Operation Midnight Hammer and the February-March 2026 follow-on campaign, have severely damaged Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with weaponization sites and related infrastructure. These operations halted uranium enrichment, forced withdrawal of IAEA inspectors, and destroyed much of the centrifuge capacity and scientific expertise needed for rapid weapon development. Iran's enriched uranium stockpile remains largely inaccessible under rubble, with no confirmed recovery or testing activity through mid-2026. This degradation of capabilities, reinforced by the April 2026 ceasefire and assessments showing Iran remains months away from a viable device, underpins trader consensus that a nuclear test before 2027 is improbable.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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