Ongoing military brinkmanship and rejected diplomatic proposals continue to shape trader assessments of a permanent Israel-Iran peace agreement. The February 28, 2026 joint U.S.-Israel strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei triggered weeks of Iranian missile and drone retaliation, followed by an April 7-8 ceasefire brokered with Pakistani and Chinese involvement. Subsequent direct talks in Islamabad collapsed, and U.S. enforcement of restrictions on Strait of Hormuz shipping has produced further Iranian proposals that President Trump described as unacceptable as recently as May 11. As of mid-May, Israeli and U.S. preparations for potential renewed strikes, combined with Iranian assertions of retained nuclear and missile capabilities, underscore persistent barriers. Scheduled diplomatic contacts and any shifts in regional proxy conflicts remain the primary variables that could alter the trajectory before mid-year deadlines.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$934,085 거래량
2026.06.30
May 31
3%
6월 30일
13%
$934,085 거래량
May 31
$279,067 거래량
3%
6월 30일
$340,403 거래량
13%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing military brinkmanship and rejected diplomatic proposals continue to shape trader assessments of a permanent Israel-Iran peace agreement. The February 28, 2026 joint U.S.-Israel strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei triggered weeks of Iranian missile and drone retaliation, followed by an April 7-8 ceasefire brokered with Pakistani and Chinese involvement. Subsequent direct talks in Islamabad collapsed, and U.S. enforcement of restrictions on Strait of Hormuz shipping has produced further Iranian proposals that President Trump described as unacceptable as recently as May 11. As of mid-May, Israeli and U.S. preparations for potential renewed strikes, combined with Iranian assertions of retained nuclear and missile capabilities, underscore persistent barriers. Scheduled diplomatic contacts and any shifts in regional proxy conflicts remain the primary variables that could alter the trajectory before mid-year deadlines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ET
거래량
$934,085종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing military brinkmanship and rejected diplomatic proposals continue to shape trader assessments of a permanent Israel-Iran peace agreement. The February 28, 2026 joint U.S.-Israel strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei triggered weeks of Iranian missile and drone retaliation, followed by an April 7-8 ceasefire brokered with Pakistani and Chinese involvement. Subsequent direct talks in Islamabad collapsed, and U.S. enforcement of restrictions on Strait of Hormuz shipping has produced further Iranian proposals that President Trump described as unacceptable as recently as May 11. As of mid-May, Israeli and U.S. preparations for potential renewed strikes, combined with Iranian assertions of retained nuclear and missile capabilities, underscore persistent barriers. Scheduled diplomatic contacts and any shifts in regional proxy conflicts remain the primary variables that could alter the trajectory before mid-year deadlines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$934,085종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing military brinkmanship and rejected diplomatic proposals continue to shape trader assessments of a permanent Israel-Iran peace agreement. The February 28, 2026 joint U.S.-Israel strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei triggered weeks of Iranian missile and drone retaliation, followed by an April 7-8 ceasefire brokered with Pakistani and Chinese involvement. Subsequent direct talks in Islamabad collapsed, and U.S. enforcement of restrictions on Strait of Hormuz shipping has produced further Iranian proposals that President Trump described as unacceptable as recently as May 11. As of mid-May, Israeli and U.S. preparations for potential renewed strikes, combined with Iranian assertions of retained nuclear and missile capabilities, underscore persistent barriers. Scheduled diplomatic contacts and any shifts in regional proxy conflicts remain the primary variables that could alter the trajectory before mid-year deadlines.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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