Hong Kong pro-democracy activist Jimmy Lai faces a 20-year prison sentence imposed in February 2026 under the national security law for collusion with foreign forces and sedition, following a two-year trial and years of pretrial detention. No appeal was filed, and recent diplomatic efforts, including U.S. President Trump's direct discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping, produced no indication of early release or humanitarian parole. At age 78 and with documented health concerns, Lai remains in maximum-security conditions, leaving insufficient time for any procedural or political shift before the June 30 deadline. Trader consensus at 98.8 percent against release by that date reflects these structural barriers, though a sudden bilateral concession or rapid health-related clemency remains theoretically possible.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$277,074 거래량
$277,074 거래량
2026.06.30
예
$277,074 거래량
$277,074 거래량
2026.06.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Hong Kong pro-democracy activist Jimmy Lai faces a 20-year prison sentence imposed in February 2026 under the national security law for collusion with foreign forces and sedition, following a two-year trial and years of pretrial detention. No appeal was filed, and recent diplomatic efforts, including U.S. President Trump's direct discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping, produced no indication of early release or humanitarian parole. At age 78 and with documented health concerns, Lai remains in maximum-security conditions, leaving insufficient time for any procedural or political shift before the June 30 deadline. Trader consensus at 98.8 percent against release by that date reflects these structural barriers, though a sudden bilateral concession or rapid health-related clemency remains theoretically possible.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Feb 12, 2026, 7:05 PM ET
거래량
$277,074종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Feb 12, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Hong Kong pro-democracy activist Jimmy Lai faces a 20-year prison sentence imposed in February 2026 under the national security law for collusion with foreign forces and sedition, following a two-year trial and years of pretrial detention. No appeal was filed, and recent diplomatic efforts, including U.S. President Trump's direct discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping, produced no indication of early release or humanitarian parole. At age 78 and with documented health concerns, Lai remains in maximum-security conditions, leaving insufficient time for any procedural or political shift before the June 30 deadline. Trader consensus at 98.8 percent against release by that date reflects these structural barriers, though a sudden bilateral concession or rapid health-related clemency remains theoretically possible.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$277,074종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Feb 12, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Hong Kong pro-democracy activist Jimmy Lai faces a 20-year prison sentence imposed in February 2026 under the national security law for collusion with foreign forces and sedition, following a two-year trial and years of pretrial detention. No appeal was filed, and recent diplomatic efforts, including U.S. President Trump's direct discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping, produced no indication of early release or humanitarian parole. At age 78 and with documented health concerns, Lai remains in maximum-security conditions, leaving insufficient time for any procedural or political shift before the June 30 deadline. Trader consensus at 98.8 percent against release by that date reflects these structural barriers, though a sudden bilateral concession or rapid health-related clemency remains theoretically possible.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문