This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran.
- Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refers to U.S. restrictions that prohibit or limit the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of crude oil, petroleum, or petrochemical products from Iran, including associated shipping, insurance, and financial transactions necessary for such exports. This includes both primary sanctions, which apply to U.S. persons, and secondary sanctions, which apply to non-U.S. persons or entities engaging in such activities.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil
- The removal, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz refers to U.S. acceptance of Iran imposing tolls, transit fees, passage charges, or other mandatory payments on commercial vessels in exchange for transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to Iran charging such fees if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to accept Iran charging such fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iran charging such fees is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to unfreeze any Iranian assets by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Unfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets.
- The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.President Trump rejected Iran's latest peace proposal on May 11 as "totally unacceptable," declaring the ceasefire "on life support" amid stalled negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program and control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian demands include war reparations, full sovereignty over the strait, an end to the U.S. blockade without dismantling nuclear facilities, and a shorter-than-20-year nuclear moratorium, clashing with U.S. insistence on major nuclear rollbacks, material repatriation, and economic normalization for good-faith behavior. With the May 31 deadline looming, traders weigh escalation risks—including potential U.S. strikes or Iranian retaliation—against diplomatic breakthroughs via high-level talks involving VP Vance, as historical patterns show Trump's maximum-pressure tactics often yield concessions but prolong uncertainty in Middle East diplomacy.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refers to U.S. restrictions that prohibit or limit the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of crude oil, petroleum, or petrochemical products from Iran, including associated shipping, insurance, and financial transactions necessary for such exports. This includes both primary sanctions, which apply to U.S. persons, and secondary sanctions, which apply to non-U.S. persons or entities engaging in such activities.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil - The removal, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refers to U.S. restrictions that prohibit or limit the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of crude oil, petroleum, or petrochemical products from Iran, including associated shipping, insurance, and financial transactions necessary for such exports. This includes both primary sanctions, which apply to U.S. persons, and secondary sanctions, which apply to non-U.S. persons or entities engaging in such activities.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil
- The removal, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
President Trump rejected Iran's latest peace proposal on May 11 as "totally unacceptable," declaring the ceasefire "on life support" amid stalled negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program and control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian demands include war reparations, full sovereignty over the strait, an end to the U.S. blockade without dismantling nuclear facilities, and a shorter-than-20-year nuclear moratorium, clashing with U.S. insistence on major nuclear rollbacks, material repatriation, and economic normalization for good-faith behavior. With the May 31 deadline looming, traders weigh escalation risks—including potential U.S. strikes or Iranian retaliation—against diplomatic breakthroughs via high-level talks involving VP Vance, as historical patterns show Trump's maximum-pressure tactics often yield concessions but prolong uncertainty in Middle East diplomacy.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
May 12 2026
U.S. officials reiterate that the blockade of Iranian ships will remain until a peace deal is signed, confirming no imminent sanction relief and anchoring the
Oil Sanction Relief dips to 14%3%
U.S. officials reiterate that the blockade of Iranian ships will remain until a peace deal is signed, confirming no imminent sanction relief and anchoring the
May 11 2026
Senate Democrats publicly condemn Trump’s broader sanctions‑relief moves for Russia, linking them to Iran and underscoring political resistance to any oil‑sanction easing
Oil Sanction Relief plunges to 17%21%
Senate Democrats publicly condemn Trump’s broader sanctions‑relief moves for Russia, linking them to Iran and underscoring political resistance to any oil‑sanction easing
May 11 2026
Trump reiterates that the month‑old cease‑fire is now on “massive life support,” again emphasizing that asset‑unfreeze demands remain unmet, pushing the probability down to its
Unfreeze Iranian Assets dips to 14%3%
Trump reiterates that the month‑old cease‑fire is now on “massive life support,” again emphasizing that asset‑unfreeze demands remain unmet, pushing the probability down to its lowest level
May 10 2026
Al Jazeera quoted Trump saying the United States will not allow Iran to reach enriched uranium, a definitive public rejection of any continuation, driving the
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 3%9%
Al Jazeera quoted Trump saying the United States will not allow Iran to reach enriched uranium, a definitive public rejection of any continuation, driving the
May 10 2026
Trump publicly rejects Iran’s response that included the unfreezing of Iranian assets, describing the proposal “totally unacceptable” and warning the cease‑fire is on the brink
Unfreeze Iranian Assets drops to 17%14%
Trump publicly rejects Iran’s response that included the unfreezing of Iranian assets, describing the proposal “totally unacceptable” and warning the cease‑fire is on the brink
May 7 2026
Reuters notes the U.S. Treasury will not renew the Iranian oil sanctions waiver after April 19, reinforcing the blockade and pushing the
Oil Sanction Relief rises to 38%4%
Reuters notes the U.S. Treasury will not renew the Iranian oil sanctions waiver after April 19, reinforcing the blockade and pushing the
May 6 2026
Reports emerge that the Trump administration is considering unfreezing $20 billion of Iranian assets in exchange for Tehran surrendering enriched uranium, sparking a brief rally
Oil Sanction Relief surges to 34%20%
Reports emerge that the Trump administration is considering unfreezing $20 billion of Iranian assets in exchange for Tehran surrendering enriched uranium, sparking a brief rally in sanction‑relief odds
May 6 2026
CNN reported US‑Iran negotiators were close to a framework that required a moratorium on uranium enrichment for more than 10 years, with no mention of allowing continued
Enrichment of Uranium jumps to 12%8%
CNN reported US‑Iran negotiators were close to a framework that required a moratorium on uranium enrichment for more than 10 years, with no mention of allowing continued enrichment, further dampening “yes” odds (temporary spike from speculation)
May 5 2026
Vice President JD Vance claims “a lot of progress” in US‑Iran talks, but markets remain skeptical, causing the
Oil Sanction Relief drops to 14%5%
Vice President JD Vance claims “a lot of progress” in US‑Iran talks, but markets remain skeptical, causing the
May 5 2026
Trump’s “life‑support” comment on the cease‑fire after Iran’s latest proposal, which demanded unfreezing of assets, signals U.S.
Unfreeze Iranian Assets jumps to 25%11%
reluctance to honor that part of the deal
May 4 2026
Axios report (cited by the Jerusalem Post) disclosed Iran’s 15‑year enrichment moratorium as part of a proposed deal, while Trump emphasized the US would lift sanctions only if
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 4%3%
Axios report (cited by the Jerusalem Post) disclosed Iran’s 15‑year enrichment moratorium as part of a proposed deal, while Trump emphasized the US would lift sanctions only if enrichment stopped, reinforcing market belief that continuation was off the table
Apr 29 2026
Pakistan’s military chief Asim Munir announces Pakistan will mediate direct US‑Iran talks in Islamabad, and the US publicly praises the mediation, raising hopes of a formal
Oil Sanction Relief plunges to 19%18%
Pakistan’s military chief Asim Munir announces Pakistan will mediate direct US‑Iran talks in Islamabad, and the US publicly praises the mediation, raising hopes of a formal agreement that could include oil‑sanction relief
Apr 21 2026
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps seizes ships in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the United States to maintain its naval blockade and casting doubt on the cease‑fire’s
Unfreeze Iranian Assets rises to 21%1%
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps seizes ships in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the United States to maintain its naval blockade and casting doubt on the cease‑fire’s asset‑unfreeze provisions
Apr 21 2026
Trump posts on Truth Social extending the US‑Iran cease‑fire;
Oil Sanction Relief rises to 37%3%
traders had placed a $430 million short on Brent minutes before the announcement, indicating expectations of falling oil
Apr 19 2026
Iran’s IRGC announces a full, indefinite shutdown of the Strait, reversing the April 17 opening and reviving the prospect of a fee‑based, Iran‑controlled passage, which briefly
Iran’s IRGC announces a full, indefinite shutdown of the Strait, reversing the April 17 opening and reviving the prospect of a fee‑based, Iran‑controlled passage, which briefly stabilises the market at low levels
Apr 17 2026
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi declares the Strait “completely open” for commercial ships for the remainder of the cease‑fire, effectively cancelling the planned
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz dips to 4%4%
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi declares the Strait “completely open” for commercial ships for the remainder of the cease‑fire, effectively cancelling the planned tolls and prompting a sharp drop in “Yes” odds
Apr 17 2026
Trump told Reuters Iran had agreed to let Washington retrieve its uranium, but Tehran quickly denied any such deal, underscoring that no agreement on continued enrichment existed
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 7%4%
Trump told Reuters Iran had agreed to let Washington retrieve its uranium, but Tehran quickly denied any such deal, underscoring that no agreement on continued enrichment existed
Apr 17 2026
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declares the Strait of Hormuz “completely open”;
Oil Sanction Relief surges to 34%20%
Trump immediately tweets praise, suggesting a de‑escalation that could lead to sanction easing
Apr 14 2026
Four Iran‑linked vessels are observed transiting the Strait despite the U.S.
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz dips to 8%1%
blockade, showing limited enforcement and keeping fee‑related expectations alive
Apr 12 2026
President Donald Trump announces a U.S.
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz plunges to 9%22%
naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz on Truth Social, warning Tehran against imposing tolls
Apr 10 2026
Reuters reports the Trump administration is set to extend a Russian‑oil waiver and, crucially, signals the imminent expiration of the Iranian‑oil waiver on April 19, heightening
Oil Sanction Relief drops to 14%11%
Reuters reports the Trump administration is set to extend a Russian‑oil waiver and, crucially, signals the imminent expiration of the Iranian‑oil waiver on April 19, heightening concerns that sanctions relief will not be renewed
Apr 8 2026
President Donald Trump announces a two‑week U.S.–Iran cease‑fire that will lift all sanctions, remove blockades and release all frozen Iranian assets abroad
Unfreeze Iranian Assets plunges to 20%28%
President Donald Trump announces a two‑week U.S.–Iran cease‑fire that will lift all sanctions, remove blockades and release all frozen Iranian assets abroad
Apr 8 2026
Iran proposes $1‑per‑barrel Bitcoin toll (up to $2 million per super‑tanker) for Hormuz transit during a two‑week U.S.–Iran truce, signalling a costly fee regime that could
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz plunges to 31%16%
Iran proposes $1‑per‑barrel Bitcoin toll (up to $2 million per super‑tanker) for Hormuz transit during a two‑week U.S.–Iran truce, signalling a costly fee regime that could trigger a “Yes” outcome
Apr 8 2026
US‑Iran cease‑fire talks announced, with President Trump saying Iran had agreed to stop enriching uranium and the US would remove past nuclear material
Enrichment of Uranium plunges to 11%37%
US‑Iran cease‑fire talks announced, with President Trump saying Iran had agreed to stop enriching uranium and the US would remove past nuclear material
Mar 20 2026
U.S. Treasury issues a 30‑day General License U authorizing transactions for Iranian‑origin crude already on‑board vessels, framed as a market‑stabilising step to unlock ~140
Oil Sanction Relief plunges to 25%25%
U.S. Treasury issues a 30‑day General License U authorizing transactions for Iranian‑origin crude already on‑board vessels, framed as a market‑stabilising step to unlock ~140 million barrels of stranded oil
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran.
- Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refers to U.S. restrictions that prohibit or limit the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of crude oil, petroleum, or petrochemical products from Iran, including associated shipping, insurance, and financial transactions necessary for such exports. This includes both primary sanctions, which apply to U.S. persons, and secondary sanctions, which apply to non-U.S. persons or entities engaging in such activities.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil
- The removal, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz refers to U.S. acceptance of Iran imposing tolls, transit fees, passage charges, or other mandatory payments on commercial vessels in exchange for transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to Iran charging such fees if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to accept Iran charging such fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iran charging such fees is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to unfreeze any Iranian assets by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Unfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets.
- The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.President Trump rejected Iran's latest peace proposal on May 11 as "totally unacceptable," declaring the ceasefire "on life support" amid stalled negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program and control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian demands include war reparations, full sovereignty over the strait, an end to the U.S. blockade without dismantling nuclear facilities, and a shorter-than-20-year nuclear moratorium, clashing with U.S. insistence on major nuclear rollbacks, material repatriation, and economic normalization for good-faith behavior. With the May 31 deadline looming, traders weigh escalation risks—including potential U.S. strikes or Iranian retaliation—against diplomatic breakthroughs via high-level talks involving VP Vance, as historical patterns show Trump's maximum-pressure tactics often yield concessions but prolong uncertainty in Middle East diplomacy.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refers to U.S. restrictions that prohibit or limit the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of crude oil, petroleum, or petrochemical products from Iran, including associated shipping, insurance, and financial transactions necessary for such exports. This includes both primary sanctions, which apply to U.S. persons, and secondary sanctions, which apply to non-U.S. persons or entities engaging in such activities.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil - The removal, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refers to U.S. restrictions that prohibit or limit the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of crude oil, petroleum, or petrochemical products from Iran, including associated shipping, insurance, and financial transactions necessary for such exports. This includes both primary sanctions, which apply to U.S. persons, and secondary sanctions, which apply to non-U.S. persons or entities engaging in such activities.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil
- The removal, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
President Trump rejected Iran's latest peace proposal on May 11 as "totally unacceptable," declaring the ceasefire "on life support" amid stalled negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program and control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian demands include war reparations, full sovereignty over the strait, an end to the U.S. blockade without dismantling nuclear facilities, and a shorter-than-20-year nuclear moratorium, clashing with U.S. insistence on major nuclear rollbacks, material repatriation, and economic normalization for good-faith behavior. With the May 31 deadline looming, traders weigh escalation risks—including potential U.S. strikes or Iranian retaliation—against diplomatic breakthroughs via high-level talks involving VP Vance, as historical patterns show Trump's maximum-pressure tactics often yield concessions but prolong uncertainty in Middle East diplomacy.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
May 12 2026
U.S. officials reiterate that the blockade of Iranian ships will remain until a peace deal is signed, confirming no imminent sanction relief and anchoring the
Oil Sanction Relief dips to 14%3%
U.S. officials reiterate that the blockade of Iranian ships will remain until a peace deal is signed, confirming no imminent sanction relief and anchoring the
May 11 2026
Senate Democrats publicly condemn Trump’s broader sanctions‑relief moves for Russia, linking them to Iran and underscoring political resistance to any oil‑sanction easing
Oil Sanction Relief plunges to 17%21%
Senate Democrats publicly condemn Trump’s broader sanctions‑relief moves for Russia, linking them to Iran and underscoring political resistance to any oil‑sanction easing
May 11 2026
Trump reiterates that the month‑old cease‑fire is now on “massive life support,” again emphasizing that asset‑unfreeze demands remain unmet, pushing the probability down to its
Unfreeze Iranian Assets dips to 14%3%
Trump reiterates that the month‑old cease‑fire is now on “massive life support,” again emphasizing that asset‑unfreeze demands remain unmet, pushing the probability down to its lowest level
May 10 2026
Al Jazeera quoted Trump saying the United States will not allow Iran to reach enriched uranium, a definitive public rejection of any continuation, driving the
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 3%9%
Al Jazeera quoted Trump saying the United States will not allow Iran to reach enriched uranium, a definitive public rejection of any continuation, driving the
May 10 2026
Trump publicly rejects Iran’s response that included the unfreezing of Iranian assets, describing the proposal “totally unacceptable” and warning the cease‑fire is on the brink
Unfreeze Iranian Assets drops to 17%14%
Trump publicly rejects Iran’s response that included the unfreezing of Iranian assets, describing the proposal “totally unacceptable” and warning the cease‑fire is on the brink
May 7 2026
Reuters notes the U.S. Treasury will not renew the Iranian oil sanctions waiver after April 19, reinforcing the blockade and pushing the
Oil Sanction Relief rises to 38%4%
Reuters notes the U.S. Treasury will not renew the Iranian oil sanctions waiver after April 19, reinforcing the blockade and pushing the
May 6 2026
Reports emerge that the Trump administration is considering unfreezing $20 billion of Iranian assets in exchange for Tehran surrendering enriched uranium, sparking a brief rally
Oil Sanction Relief surges to 34%20%
Reports emerge that the Trump administration is considering unfreezing $20 billion of Iranian assets in exchange for Tehran surrendering enriched uranium, sparking a brief rally in sanction‑relief odds
May 6 2026
CNN reported US‑Iran negotiators were close to a framework that required a moratorium on uranium enrichment for more than 10 years, with no mention of allowing continued
Enrichment of Uranium jumps to 12%8%
CNN reported US‑Iran negotiators were close to a framework that required a moratorium on uranium enrichment for more than 10 years, with no mention of allowing continued enrichment, further dampening “yes” odds (temporary spike from speculation)
May 5 2026
Vice President JD Vance claims “a lot of progress” in US‑Iran talks, but markets remain skeptical, causing the
Oil Sanction Relief drops to 14%5%
Vice President JD Vance claims “a lot of progress” in US‑Iran talks, but markets remain skeptical, causing the
May 5 2026
Trump’s “life‑support” comment on the cease‑fire after Iran’s latest proposal, which demanded unfreezing of assets, signals U.S.
Unfreeze Iranian Assets jumps to 25%11%
reluctance to honor that part of the deal
May 4 2026
Axios report (cited by the Jerusalem Post) disclosed Iran’s 15‑year enrichment moratorium as part of a proposed deal, while Trump emphasized the US would lift sanctions only if
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 4%3%
Axios report (cited by the Jerusalem Post) disclosed Iran’s 15‑year enrichment moratorium as part of a proposed deal, while Trump emphasized the US would lift sanctions only if enrichment stopped, reinforcing market belief that continuation was off the table
Apr 29 2026
Pakistan’s military chief Asim Munir announces Pakistan will mediate direct US‑Iran talks in Islamabad, and the US publicly praises the mediation, raising hopes of a formal
Oil Sanction Relief plunges to 19%18%
Pakistan’s military chief Asim Munir announces Pakistan will mediate direct US‑Iran talks in Islamabad, and the US publicly praises the mediation, raising hopes of a formal agreement that could include oil‑sanction relief
Apr 21 2026
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps seizes ships in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the United States to maintain its naval blockade and casting doubt on the cease‑fire’s
Unfreeze Iranian Assets rises to 21%1%
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps seizes ships in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the United States to maintain its naval blockade and casting doubt on the cease‑fire’s asset‑unfreeze provisions
Apr 21 2026
Trump posts on Truth Social extending the US‑Iran cease‑fire;
Oil Sanction Relief rises to 37%3%
traders had placed a $430 million short on Brent minutes before the announcement, indicating expectations of falling oil
Apr 19 2026
Iran’s IRGC announces a full, indefinite shutdown of the Strait, reversing the April 17 opening and reviving the prospect of a fee‑based, Iran‑controlled passage, which briefly
Iran’s IRGC announces a full, indefinite shutdown of the Strait, reversing the April 17 opening and reviving the prospect of a fee‑based, Iran‑controlled passage, which briefly stabilises the market at low levels
Apr 17 2026
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi declares the Strait “completely open” for commercial ships for the remainder of the cease‑fire, effectively cancelling the planned
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz dips to 4%4%
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi declares the Strait “completely open” for commercial ships for the remainder of the cease‑fire, effectively cancelling the planned tolls and prompting a sharp drop in “Yes” odds
Apr 17 2026
Trump told Reuters Iran had agreed to let Washington retrieve its uranium, but Tehran quickly denied any such deal, underscoring that no agreement on continued enrichment existed
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 7%4%
Trump told Reuters Iran had agreed to let Washington retrieve its uranium, but Tehran quickly denied any such deal, underscoring that no agreement on continued enrichment existed
Apr 17 2026
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declares the Strait of Hormuz “completely open”;
Oil Sanction Relief surges to 34%20%
Trump immediately tweets praise, suggesting a de‑escalation that could lead to sanction easing
Apr 14 2026
Four Iran‑linked vessels are observed transiting the Strait despite the U.S.
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz dips to 8%1%
blockade, showing limited enforcement and keeping fee‑related expectations alive
Apr 12 2026
President Donald Trump announces a U.S.
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz plunges to 9%22%
naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz on Truth Social, warning Tehran against imposing tolls
Apr 10 2026
Reuters reports the Trump administration is set to extend a Russian‑oil waiver and, crucially, signals the imminent expiration of the Iranian‑oil waiver on April 19, heightening
Oil Sanction Relief drops to 14%11%
Reuters reports the Trump administration is set to extend a Russian‑oil waiver and, crucially, signals the imminent expiration of the Iranian‑oil waiver on April 19, heightening concerns that sanctions relief will not be renewed
Apr 8 2026
President Donald Trump announces a two‑week U.S.–Iran cease‑fire that will lift all sanctions, remove blockades and release all frozen Iranian assets abroad
Unfreeze Iranian Assets plunges to 20%28%
President Donald Trump announces a two‑week U.S.–Iran cease‑fire that will lift all sanctions, remove blockades and release all frozen Iranian assets abroad
Apr 8 2026
Iran proposes $1‑per‑barrel Bitcoin toll (up to $2 million per super‑tanker) for Hormuz transit during a two‑week U.S.–Iran truce, signalling a costly fee regime that could
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz plunges to 31%16%
Iran proposes $1‑per‑barrel Bitcoin toll (up to $2 million per super‑tanker) for Hormuz transit during a two‑week U.S.–Iran truce, signalling a costly fee regime that could trigger a “Yes” outcome
Apr 8 2026
US‑Iran cease‑fire talks announced, with President Trump saying Iran had agreed to stop enriching uranium and the US would remove past nuclear material
Enrichment of Uranium plunges to 11%37%
US‑Iran cease‑fire talks announced, with President Trump saying Iran had agreed to stop enriching uranium and the US would remove past nuclear material
Mar 20 2026
U.S. Treasury issues a 30‑day General License U authorizing transactions for Iranian‑origin crude already on‑board vessels, framed as a market‑stabilising step to unlock ~140
Oil Sanction Relief plunges to 25%25%
U.S. Treasury issues a 30‑day General License U authorizing transactions for Iranian‑origin crude already on‑board vessels, framed as a market‑stabilising step to unlock ~140 million barrels of stranded oil
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"5월 31일까지 트럼프는 이란의 어떤 요구에 동의할 것인가?"은 4개의 가능한 결과가 있는 Polymarket의 예측 마켓으로, 트레이더들이 어떤 결과가 발생할지에 따라 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 현재 선두 결과는 14%의 "석유 제재 완화"이며, 이어서 14%의 "이란 자산 동결 해제"입니다. 가격은 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영합니다. 예를 들어 14¢에 거래되는 주식은 마켓이 해당 결과에 14%의 확률을 부여함을 의미합니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들이 새로운 진전과 정보에 반응함에 따라 지속적으로 변화합니다. 정확한 결과의 주식은 마켓 정산 시 각 $1에 교환 가능합니다.
오늘 현재 "5월 31일까지 트럼프는 이란의 어떤 요구에 동의할 것인가?"은 총 $954.6K의 거래량을 생성했습니다 마켓이 Apr 29, 2026에 시작된 이후. 이 수준의 거래 활동은 Polymarket 커뮤니티의 강한 참여를 반영하며 현재 확률이 깊은 참가자 풀에 의해 정보에 기반하도록 보장합니다. 이 페이지에서 실시간 가격 변동을 추적하고 모든 결과에 직접 거래할 수 있습니다.
"5월 31일까지 트럼프는 이란의 어떤 요구에 동의할 것인가?"에서 거래하려면 이 페이지에 나열된 4개의 가용 결과를 탐색하세요. 각 결과에는 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타내는 현재 가격이 표시됩니다. 포지션을 잡으려면 가장 가능성이 높다고 생각하는 결과를 선택하고, 찬성이면 "Yes", 반대이면 "No"를 선택하고, 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 마켓이 정산될 때 선택한 결과가 맞으면 "Yes" 주식은 각 $1을 지급합니다. 틀리면 $0을 지급합니다. 수익을 확정하거나 손실을 줄이고 싶다면 정산 전 언제든지 주식을 매도할 수 있습니다.
"5월 31일까지 트럼프는 이란의 어떤 요구에 동의할 것인가?"의 현재 유력 후보는 14%의 "석유 제재 완화"이며, 마켓이 해당 결과에 14%의 확률을 부여합니다. 두 번째로 가까운 결과는 14%의 "이란 자산 동결 해제"입니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들의 주식 매수 및 매도에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트되어 가장 가능성 있는 결과에 대한 최신 집단 시각을 반영합니다. 새로운 정보가 나타남에 따라 확률이 어떻게 변화하는지 자주 확인하거나 이 페이지를 북마크하세요.
"5월 31일까지 트럼프는 이란의 어떤 요구에 동의할 것인가?"의 정산 규칙은 각 결과가 승자로 선언되기 위해 정확히 무엇이 일어나야 하는지를 정의합니다 — 결과를 결정하는 데 사용되는 공식 데이터 소스를 포함합니다. 이 페이지의 댓글 위 "규칙" 섹션에서 완전한 정산 기준을 검토할 수 있습니다. 거래 전 규칙을 주의 깊게 읽는 것을 권장합니다. 이 마켓이 어떻게 정산되는지를 관리하는 정확한 조건, 예외 사항, 출처를 명시하고 있습니다.
네. 정보를 얻기 위해 거래할 필요가 없습니다. 이 페이지는 "5월 31일까지 트럼프는 이란의 어떤 요구에 동의할 것인가?"의 실시간 추적기 역할을 합니다. 결과 확률은 새로운 거래가 들어옴에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트됩니다. 이 페이지를 북마크하고 다른 트레이더들이 무엇을 말하는지 댓글 섹션을 확인할 수 있습니다. 차트의 시간 범위 필터를 사용하여 확률이 시간에 따라 어떻게 변화했는지 확인할 수도 있습니다. 마켓이 기대하는 바에 대한 무료 실시간 창입니다.
Polymarket 확률은 자신의 신념에 실제 돈을 투자하는 트레이더들에 의해 설정되어 정확한 예측을 표면화하는 경향이 있습니다. "5월 31일까지 트럼프는 이란의 어떤 요구에 동의할 것인가?"에 $954.6K이 거래되어 이 가격은 수천 명의 참가자의 집단 지식과 확신을 집계합니다 — 여론조사, 전문가 예측, 기존 설문조사를 종종 능가합니다. Polymarket과 같은 예측 마켓은 특히 이벤트가 정산일에 가까워질수록 강한 정확도 실적을 가지고 있습니다. 예를 들어 Polymarket의 1개월 정확도 점수는 94%입니다. Polymarket의 예측 정확도에 대한 최신 통계는 정확도 페이지를 방문하세요.
"5월 31일까지 트럼프는 이란의 어떤 요구에 동의할 것인가?"에서 첫 거래를 하려면 무료 Polymarket 계정에 가입하고 암호화폐, 신용 또는 직불카드, 은행 이체를 사용하여 자금을 입금하세요. 계정에 자금이 입금되면 이 페이지로 돌아와 거래하려는 결과를 선택하고 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 예측 마켓이 처음이라면 Polymarket 페이지 상단의 "이용 방법" 링크를 클릭하여 거래 방법에 대한 단계별 안내를 확인하세요.
Polymarket에서 각 결과의 가격은 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타냅니다. "5월 31일까지 트럼프는 이란의 어떤 요구에 동의할 것인가?" 마켓에서 "석유 제재 완화"의 14¢ 가격은 트레이더들이 "석유 제재 완화"이 정확한 결과가 될 확률을 대략 14%로 보고 있음을 의미합니다. 14¢에 "Yes" 주식을 매수하고 결과가 맞으면 주당 $1.00을 받습니다 — 주당 86¢의 수익입니다. 틀리면 해당 주식은 $0의 가치입니다.
"5월 31일까지 트럼프는 이란의 어떤 요구에 동의할 것인가?" 마켓은 May 31, 2026 전후에 정산될 예정입니다. 이는 해당 날짜까지 거래가 계속 열려 있고 새로운 정보가 나타남에 따라 확률이 계속 변할 것임을 의미합니다. 정확한 정산 시기는 이 페이지의 "규칙" 섹션에 명시된 대로 공식 결과가 이용 가능해지는 시점에 따라 달라집니다.
"5월 31일까지 트럼프는 이란의 어떤 요구에 동의할 것인가?" 마켓에는 트레이더들이 분석을 공유하고, 결과를 토론하고, 최신 진전을 논의하는 150개 댓글의 활발한 커뮤니티이 있습니다. 아래 댓글 섹션으로 스크롤하여 다른 참가자들의 의견을 읽어보세요. "상위 보유자"로 필터링하여 마켓의 가장 큰 트레이더들의 포지션을 확인하거나 "활동" 탭에서 실시간 거래 피드를 확인할 수도 있습니다.
Polymarket은 세계 최대 예측 마켓으로, 실제 이벤트에 대한 지식으로 정보를 얻고 수익을 낼 수 있습니다. 트레이더들은 정치, 선거, 암호화폐, 금융, 스포츠, 기술, 문화 등 "5월 31일까지 트럼프는 이란의 어떤 요구에 동의할 것인가?"과 같은 마켓을 포함한 다양한 주제의 결과에 대한 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 가격은 금전적 확신에 뒷받침된 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영하며, 여론조사, 전문가, 기존 설문조사보다 빠르고 정확한 신호를 제공하는 경우가 많습니다.
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