An Alberta court ruling on May 13 quashed a separatist petition seeking signatures for an independence referendum, siding with First Nations who argued for prior consultation, effectively blocking the initiative just days ago and leaving no clear path forward despite Premier Danielle Smith's criticism of the decision as legally flawed. Polls consistently show majority opposition to separation, with recent surveys indicating only 20-30% openness to sovereignty amid a scheduled October 19 provincial referendum on nine unrelated questions. These legal barriers, low public support, and absence of government commitment reflect trader consensus implying an 89.3% probability against any 2026 independence vote, though appeals or political shifts could alter dynamics.