The UAE's departure from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026—the group's third-largest producer at the time—has already tested cartel cohesion amid disputes over production quotas and national output goals. Remaining members, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Russia, Kuwait, and Kazakhstan, have since reaffirmed commitments to coordinated cuts and market stability through multiple ministerial meetings and production adjustments into June. No additional exits have been announced or credibly signaled in the six weeks following the UAE move, despite prior precedents like Angola in 2024. Trader consensus at 83.5% for no further departures in 2026 reflects this lack of momentum, institutional continuity in OPEC+ decision-making, and absence of comparable quota conflicts among core producers before year-end.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$118,396 거래량
$118,396 거래량
2026.12.31
$118,396 거래량
$118,396 거래량
2026.12.31
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The UAE's departure from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026—the group's third-largest producer at the time—has already tested cartel cohesion amid disputes over production quotas and national output goals. Remaining members, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Russia, Kuwait, and Kazakhstan, have since reaffirmed commitments to coordinated cuts and market stability through multiple ministerial meetings and production adjustments into June. No additional exits have been announced or credibly signaled in the six weeks following the UAE move, despite prior precedents like Angola in 2024. Trader consensus at 83.5% for no further departures in 2026 reflects this lack of momentum, institutional continuity in OPEC+ decision-making, and absence of comparable quota conflicts among core producers before year-end.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
마켓 개설일: Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
거래량
$118,396종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The UAE's departure from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026—the group's third-largest producer at the time—has already tested cartel cohesion amid disputes over production quotas and national output goals. Remaining members, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Russia, Kuwait, and Kazakhstan, have since reaffirmed commitments to coordinated cuts and market stability through multiple ministerial meetings and production adjustments into June. No additional exits have been announced or credibly signaled in the six weeks following the UAE move, despite prior precedents like Angola in 2024. Trader consensus at 83.5% for no further departures in 2026 reflects this lack of momentum, institutional continuity in OPEC+ decision-making, and absence of comparable quota conflicts among core producers before year-end.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
거래량
$118,396종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The UAE's departure from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026—the group's third-largest producer at the time—has already tested cartel cohesion amid disputes over production quotas and national output goals. Remaining members, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Russia, Kuwait, and Kazakhstan, have since reaffirmed commitments to coordinated cuts and market stability through multiple ministerial meetings and production adjustments into June. No additional exits have been announced or credibly signaled in the six weeks following the UAE move, despite prior precedents like Angola in 2024. Trader consensus at 83.5% for no further departures in 2026 reflects this lack of momentum, institutional continuity in OPEC+ decision-making, and absence of comparable quota conflicts among core producers before year-end.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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