Global earthquake monitoring by the USGS shows four magnitude 7.0+ events so far in 2026, the most recent a 7.4 off eastern Japan on April 20. Historically, 15–20 such quakes occur annually worldwide along major subduction zones and fault systems, with activity clustering in the Pacific Ring of Fire. No new 7.0+ events have been recorded in the past four weeks, though ongoing aftershocks and smaller tremors continue in Vanuatu, Tonga, and Indonesia. Traders assess probabilities against this baseline frequency, upcoming regional stress accumulation, and any revised USGS forecasts or seismic swarm data that could signal an imminent large rupture.