Warm southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front is driving National Weather Service forecast models toward a Chicago high temperature near 79°F on May 18, underpinning the market’s 92% implied probability for 78°F or higher. Ensemble guidance shows dew points climbing into the upper 60s with limited cloud cover and only modest mixing, conditions that historically support rapid daytime warming this time of year. Normal May 18 highs average 71°F, so the current setup represents a clear positive anomaly. Traders are weighting the consensus of latest GFS and ECMWF runs heavily, though any faster frontal passage or widespread showers could trim the peak by several degrees. Updated short-range guidance expected this evening will provide the next key test of that trajectory.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Chicago on May 18?
Highest temperature in Chicago on May 18?
78°F or higher 91%
76-77°F 8%
72-73°F 2.1%
74-75°F 2.1%
NOWE
$10,883 Wol.
NOWE
$10,883 Wol.
May 18, 2026
59°F or below
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
2%
72-73°F
2%
74-75°F
2%
76-77°F
8%
78°F or higher
91%
78°F or higher 91%
76-77°F 8%
72-73°F 2.1%
74-75°F 2.1%
NOWE
$10,883 Wol.
NOWE
$10,883 Wol.
May 18, 2026
59°F or below
$790 Wol.
<1%
60-61°F
$6,428 Wol.
<1%
62-63°F
$438 Wol.
<1%
64-65°F
$423 Wol.
<1%
66-67°F
$388 Wol.
<1%
68-69°F
$388 Wol.
<1%
70-71°F
$339 Wol.
2%
72-73°F
$333 Wol.
2%
74-75°F
$259 Wol.
2%
76-77°F
$413 Wol.
8%
78°F or higher
$684 Wol.
91%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Warm southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front is driving National Weather Service forecast models toward a Chicago high temperature near 79°F on May 18, underpinning the market’s 92% implied probability for 78°F or higher. Ensemble guidance shows dew points climbing into the upper 60s with limited cloud cover and only modest mixing, conditions that historically support rapid daytime warming this time of year. Normal May 18 highs average 71°F, so the current setup represents a clear positive anomaly. Traders are weighting the consensus of latest GFS and ECMWF runs heavily, though any faster frontal passage or widespread showers could trim the peak by several degrees. Updated short-range guidance expected this evening will provide the next key test of that trajectory.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Wolumen
$10,883Data zakończenia
May 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Warm southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front is driving National Weather Service forecast models toward a Chicago high temperature near 79°F on May 18, underpinning the market’s 92% implied probability for 78°F or higher. Ensemble guidance shows dew points climbing into the upper 60s with limited cloud cover and only modest mixing, conditions that historically support rapid daytime warming this time of year. Normal May 18 highs average 71°F, so the current setup represents a clear positive anomaly. Traders are weighting the consensus of latest GFS and ECMWF runs heavily, though any faster frontal passage or widespread showers could trim the peak by several degrees. Updated short-range guidance expected this evening will provide the next key test of that trajectory.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$10,883Data zakończenia
May 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDWarm southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front is driving National Weather Service forecast models toward a Chicago high temperature near 79°F on May 18, underpinning the market’s 92% implied probability for 78°F or higher. Ensemble guidance shows dew points climbing into the upper 60s with limited cloud cover and only modest mixing, conditions that historically support rapid daytime warming this time of year. Normal May 18 highs average 71°F, so the current setup represents a clear positive anomaly. Traders are weighting the consensus of latest GFS and ECMWF runs heavily, though any faster frontal passage or widespread showers could trim the peak by several degrees. Updated short-range guidance expected this evening will provide the next key test of that trajectory.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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