India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts cap Lucknow's May 15 maximum temperature at 39°C under mainly clear skies, driving the 98% market-implied probability for 41°C or below as traders align with this authoritative guidance and recent observations of 38.1°C on May 13 amid dry pre-monsoon subsidence. High-pressure systems promote radiative cooling at night while limiting daytime convective heating, consistent with May climatology where average highs hover around 39–40°C and no heatwave warnings apply locally. Ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF show tight clustering below 41°C, though realistic challenges include unanticipated wind calm or sudden humidity drops pushing 1–2°C higher; final IMD airport measurements on May 15 will resolve the market.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Lucknow on May 15?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on May 15?
41°C or below 98.0%
42°C 1.3%
43°C <1%
44°C <1%
$17,748 Wol.
$17,748 Wol.
41°C or below
98%
42°C
1%
43°C
1%
44°C
<1%
45°C
<1%
46°C
<1%
47°C
<1%
48°C
<1%
49°C
<1%
50°C
<1%
51°C or higher
<1%
41°C or below 98.0%
42°C 1.3%
43°C <1%
44°C <1%
$17,748 Wol.
$17,748 Wol.
41°C or below
98%
42°C
1%
43°C
1%
44°C
<1%
45°C
<1%
46°C
<1%
47°C
<1%
48°C
<1%
49°C
<1%
50°C
<1%
51°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Źródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Źródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts cap Lucknow's May 15 maximum temperature at 39°C under mainly clear skies, driving the 98% market-implied probability for 41°C or below as traders align with this authoritative guidance and recent observations of 38.1°C on May 13 amid dry pre-monsoon subsidence. High-pressure systems promote radiative cooling at night while limiting daytime convective heating, consistent with May climatology where average highs hover around 39–40°C and no heatwave warnings apply locally. Ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF show tight clustering below 41°C, though realistic challenges include unanticipated wind calm or sudden humidity drops pushing 1–2°C higher; final IMD airport measurements on May 15 will resolve the market.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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