Recent April nonfarm payrolls of 115,000 exceeded consensus estimates of 55,000–65,000, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent, yet trader-implied odds for the May report remain tightly contested across the 0–50k, 100–150k, and 150–200k buckets. This positioning reflects mixed leading indicators, including ADP private payroll growth of 109,000 and initial jobless claims rising modestly to 211,000, which point to a labor market that is cooling gradually but not abruptly. Market-implied probabilities incorporate uncertainty around potential federal spending shifts and seasonal factors ahead of the June 5 release, while acknowledging that any surprise acceleration in hiring could quickly shift volume toward the 200k+ outcome.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many jobs added in May?
How many jobs added in May?
100k – 150k 41%
200k+ 22%
50k – 100k 22%
150k – 200k 20%
NOWE
NOWE
Jun 5, 2026
<0
15%
0 – 50k
27%
50k – 100k
17%
100k – 150k
27%
150k – 200k
20%
200k+
22%
100k – 150k 41%
200k+ 22%
50k – 100k 22%
150k – 200k 20%
NOWE
NOWE
Jun 5, 2026
<0
$138 Wol.
15%
0 – 50k
$75 Wol.
27%
50k – 100k
$60 Wol.
17%
100k – 150k
$74 Wol.
27%
150k – 200k
$38 Wol.
20%
200k+
$38 Wol.
22%
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for May 2026, scheduled to be released on June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmRecent April nonfarm payrolls of 115,000 exceeded consensus estimates of 55,000–65,000, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent, yet trader-implied odds for the May report remain tightly contested across the 0–50k, 100–150k, and 150–200k buckets. This positioning reflects mixed leading indicators, including ADP private payroll growth of 109,000 and initial jobless claims rising modestly to 211,000, which point to a labor market that is cooling gradually but not abruptly. Market-implied probabilities incorporate uncertainty around potential federal spending shifts and seasonal factors ahead of the June 5 release, while acknowledging that any surprise acceleration in hiring could quickly shift volume toward the 200k+ outcome.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for May 2026, scheduled to be released on June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Rynek otwarty: May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
Wolumen
$424Data zakończenia
Jun 5, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for May 2026, scheduled to be released on June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmRecent April nonfarm payrolls of 115,000 exceeded consensus estimates of 55,000–65,000, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent, yet trader-implied odds for the May report remain tightly contested across the 0–50k, 100–150k, and 150–200k buckets. This positioning reflects mixed leading indicators, including ADP private payroll growth of 109,000 and initial jobless claims rising modestly to 211,000, which point to a labor market that is cooling gradually but not abruptly. Market-implied probabilities incorporate uncertainty around potential federal spending shifts and seasonal factors ahead of the June 5 release, while acknowledging that any surprise acceleration in hiring could quickly shift volume toward the 200k+ outcome.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for May 2026, scheduled to be released on June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Wolumen
$424Data zakończenia
Jun 5, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent April nonfarm payrolls of 115,000 exceeded consensus estimates of 55,000–65,000, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent, yet trader-implied odds for the May report remain tightly contested across the 0–50k, 100–150k, and 150–200k buckets. This positioning reflects mixed leading indicators, including ADP private payroll growth of 109,000 and initial jobless claims rising modestly to 211,000, which point to a labor market that is cooling gradually but not abruptly. Market-implied probabilities incorporate uncertainty around potential federal spending shifts and seasonal factors ahead of the June 5 release, while acknowledging that any surprise acceleration in hiring could quickly shift volume toward the 200k+ outcome.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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