**Trader sentiment for Mexico City’s August 25 minimum temperature centers on the 11–14 °C range because official forecasts and model consensus cluster there.** The Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) projects a city-wide minimum of 12–14 °C under partly to mostly cloudy skies with a 70 % chance of showers and thunderstorms. Persistent cloud cover and light rain limit nocturnal radiative cooling at the city’s 2,240 m elevation, keeping overnight lows from dropping sharply. Hourly guidance shows the coldest readings typically occurring between 4–7 a.m. local time, with several sources indicating brief dips near 13 °C but few extending below 12 °C. Recent precedent from August 24 (when some western boroughs reached 8–10 °C) raised awareness of cold-air drainage, yet stronger easterly flow and higher moisture on the 25th are expected to moderate temperatures. The tight spread of market-implied probabilities (11–14 °C each ~26–30 %) mirrors this narrow scientific uncertainty band, while probabilities collapse outside 10–16 °C because both historical climatology (~14 °C average low) and current model runs make extremes unlikely. Traders are effectively pricing the resolution criteria around the official station reading under typical late-summer rainy-season conditions.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Mexico City on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on August 25?
14°C 50%
17°C 50%
12°C 27%
13°C 27%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 25, 2026
9°C or below
1%
10°C
7%
11°C
26%
12°C
27%
13°C
27%
14°C
27%
15°C
26%
16°C
26%
17°C
50%
18°C
2%
19°C or higher
1%
14°C 50%
17°C 50%
12°C 27%
13°C 27%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 25, 2026
9°C or below
$15 Wol.
1%
10°C
$85 Wol.
7%
11°C
$21 Wol.
26%
12°C
$0 Wol.
27%
13°C
$0 Wol.
27%
14°C
$39 Wol.
27%
15°C
$0 Wol.
26%
16°C
$60 Wol.
26%
17°C
$90 Wol.
50%
18°C
$140 Wol.
2%
19°C or higher
$135 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Mexico City’s August 25 minimum temperature centers on the 11–14 °C range because official forecasts and model consensus cluster there.** The Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) projects a city-wide minimum of 12–14 °C under partly to mostly cloudy skies with a 70 % chance of showers and thunderstorms. Persistent cloud cover and light rain limit nocturnal radiative cooling at the city’s 2,240 m elevation, keeping overnight lows from dropping sharply.
Hourly guidance shows the coldest readings typically occurring between 4–7 a.m. local time, with several sources indicating brief dips near 13 °C but few extending below 12 °C. Recent precedent from August 24 (when some western boroughs reached 8–10 °C) raised awareness of cold-air drainage, yet stronger easterly flow and higher moisture on the 25th are expected to moderate temperatures.
The tight spread of market-implied probabilities (11–14 °C each ~26–30 %) mirrors this narrow scientific uncertainty band, while probabilities collapse outside 10–16 °C because both historical climatology (~14 °C average low) and current model runs make extremes unlikely. Traders are effectively pricing the resolution criteria around the official station reading under typical late-summer rainy-season conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 23, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Wolumen
$585Data zakończenia
Aug 25, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 23, 2026, 9:30 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Mexico City’s August 25 minimum temperature centers on the 11–14 °C range because official forecasts and model consensus cluster there.** The Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) projects a city-wide minimum of 12–14 °C under partly to mostly cloudy skies with a 70 % chance of showers and thunderstorms. Persistent cloud cover and light rain limit nocturnal radiative cooling at the city’s 2,240 m elevation, keeping overnight lows from dropping sharply.
Hourly guidance shows the coldest readings typically occurring between 4–7 a.m. local time, with several sources indicating brief dips near 13 °C but few extending below 12 °C. Recent precedent from August 24 (when some western boroughs reached 8–10 °C) raised awareness of cold-air drainage, yet stronger easterly flow and higher moisture on the 25th are expected to moderate temperatures.
The tight spread of market-implied probabilities (11–14 °C each ~26–30 %) mirrors this narrow scientific uncertainty band, while probabilities collapse outside 10–16 °C because both historical climatology (~14 °C average low) and current model runs make extremes unlikely. Traders are effectively pricing the resolution criteria around the official station reading under typical late-summer rainy-season conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$585Data zakończenia
Aug 25, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 23, 2026, 9:30 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for Mexico City’s August 25 minimum temperature centers on the 11–14 °C range because official forecasts and model consensus cluster there.** The Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) projects a city-wide minimum of 12–14 °C under partly to mostly cloudy skies with a 70 % chance of showers and thunderstorms. Persistent cloud cover and light rain limit nocturnal radiative cooling at the city’s 2,240 m elevation, keeping overnight lows from dropping sharply. Hourly guidance shows the coldest readings typically occurring between 4–7 a.m. local time, with several sources indicating brief dips near 13 °C but few extending below 12 °C. Recent precedent from August 24 (when some western boroughs reached 8–10 °C) raised awareness of cold-air drainage, yet stronger easterly flow and higher moisture on the 25th are expected to moderate temperatures. The tight spread of market-implied probabilities (11–14 °C each ~26–30 %) mirrors this narrow scientific uncertainty band, while probabilities collapse outside 10–16 °C because both historical climatology (~14 °C average low) and current model runs make extremes unlikely. Traders are effectively pricing the resolution criteria around the official station reading under typical late-summer rainy-season conditions.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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