Recent polling aggregates place the Parti Québécois ahead on the popular vote near 29 percent, with the CAQ at roughly 23 percent and the Liberals close behind, reflecting the impact of the CAQ leadership transition to Christine Fréchette and voter focus on economic pressures from U.S. tariffs. Seat projections from models such as 338Canada show the CAQ averaging around 21 seats but with wide ranges extending into the low 40s, driven by fragmented regional support and many competitive ridings where small swings in francophone turnout or Liberal-Conservative vote splitting can shift outcomes. The tight distribution across the 20-29 and 30+ brackets in trader consensus stems from this uncertainty ahead of remaining debates and the October 5 vote, where last-minute campaign momentum or turnout patterns could alter the CAQ's final seat total.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano30+ 34%
20-24 33%
25-29 29%
15-19 10.2%
$17,840 Wol.
$17,840 Wol.
Oct 5, 2026
<5
<1%
5-9
3%
10-14
4%
15-19
8%
20-24
33%
25-29
29%
30+
34%
30+ 34%
20-24 33%
25-29 29%
15-19 10.2%
$17,840 Wol.
$17,840 Wol.
Oct 5, 2026
<5
$826 Wol.
<1%
5-9
$1,320 Wol.
3%
10-14
$3,335 Wol.
4%
15-19
$1,808 Wol.
8%
20-24
$3,398 Wol.
33%
25-29
$1,536 Wol.
29%
30+
$5,615 Wol.
34%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling aggregates place the Parti Québécois ahead on the popular vote near 29 percent, with the CAQ at roughly 23 percent and the Liberals close behind, reflecting the impact of the CAQ leadership transition to Christine Fréchette and voter focus on economic pressures from U.S. tariffs. Seat projections from models such as 338Canada show the CAQ averaging around 21 seats but with wide ranges extending into the low 40s, driven by fragmented regional support and many competitive ridings where small swings in francophone turnout or Liberal-Conservative vote splitting can shift outcomes. The tight distribution across the 20-29 and 30+ brackets in trader consensus stems from this uncertainty ahead of remaining debates and the October 5 vote, where last-minute campaign momentum or turnout patterns could alter the CAQ's final seat total.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Rynek otwarty: Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Wolumen
$17,840Data zakończenia
Oct 5, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling aggregates place the Parti Québécois ahead on the popular vote near 29 percent, with the CAQ at roughly 23 percent and the Liberals close behind, reflecting the impact of the CAQ leadership transition to Christine Fréchette and voter focus on economic pressures from U.S. tariffs. Seat projections from models such as 338Canada show the CAQ averaging around 21 seats but with wide ranges extending into the low 40s, driven by fragmented regional support and many competitive ridings where small swings in francophone turnout or Liberal-Conservative vote splitting can shift outcomes. The tight distribution across the 20-29 and 30+ brackets in trader consensus stems from this uncertainty ahead of remaining debates and the October 5 vote, where last-minute campaign momentum or turnout patterns could alter the CAQ's final seat total.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Wolumen
$17,840Data zakończenia
Oct 5, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling aggregates place the Parti Québécois ahead on the popular vote near 29 percent, with the CAQ at roughly 23 percent and the Liberals close behind, reflecting the impact of the CAQ leadership transition to Christine Fréchette and voter focus on economic pressures from U.S. tariffs. Seat projections from models such as 338Canada show the CAQ averaging around 21 seats but with wide ranges extending into the low 40s, driven by fragmented regional support and many competitive ridings where small swings in francophone turnout or Liberal-Conservative vote splitting can shift outcomes. The tight distribution across the 20-29 and 30+ brackets in trader consensus stems from this uncertainty ahead of remaining debates and the October 5 vote, where last-minute campaign momentum or turnout patterns could alter the CAQ's final seat total.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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