Recent May 2026 data showing the U.S. goods and services trade deficit widening sharply to $77.6 billion from a revised $54.6 billion in April has anchored trader expectations for June near that level. The advance goods deficit narrowed to $101.5 billion in June from $105.9 billion the prior month, reflecting lower imports and exports, yet the full balance—incorporating the services surplus—remains the resolution metric ahead of the August 4 BEA release. Market-implied odds heavily favor the 70-80 billion range at 77.5 percent, consistent with the prior month's print and limited evidence of sustained reversal in import demand or export momentum. Broader factors, including persistent goods import volumes and seasonal patterns, continue to support this consensus while leaving modest probability on adjacent bands pending the final figures.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoUS Trade Deficit - June 2026
US Trade Deficit - June 2026
70-80B 77%
60-70B 16%
50-60B 6%
80-90B 5.5%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 4, 2026
<50B
<1%
50-60B
6%
60-70B
16%
70-80B
77%
80-90B
5%
90-100B
5%
100B+
1%
70-80B 77%
60-70B 16%
50-60B 6%
80-90B 5.5%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 4, 2026
<50B
$397 Wol.
<1%
50-60B
$293 Wol.
6%
60-70B
$454 Wol.
16%
70-80B
$5,844 Wol.
77%
80-90B
$246 Wol.
5%
90-100B
$246 Wol.
5%
100B+
$357 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent May 2026 data showing the U.S. goods and services trade deficit widening sharply to $77.6 billion from a revised $54.6 billion in April has anchored trader expectations for June near that level. The advance goods deficit narrowed to $101.5 billion in June from $105.9 billion the prior month, reflecting lower imports and exports, yet the full balance—incorporating the services surplus—remains the resolution metric ahead of the August 4 BEA release. Market-implied odds heavily favor the 70-80 billion range at 77.5 percent, consistent with the prior month's print and limited evidence of sustained reversal in import demand or export momentum. Broader factors, including persistent goods import volumes and seasonal patterns, continue to support this consensus while leaving modest probability on adjacent bands pending the final figures.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 29, 2026, 7:08 PM ET
Wolumen
$7,836Data zakończenia
Aug 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 29, 2026, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent May 2026 data showing the U.S. goods and services trade deficit widening sharply to $77.6 billion from a revised $54.6 billion in April has anchored trader expectations for June near that level. The advance goods deficit narrowed to $101.5 billion in June from $105.9 billion the prior month, reflecting lower imports and exports, yet the full balance—incorporating the services surplus—remains the resolution metric ahead of the August 4 BEA release. Market-implied odds heavily favor the 70-80 billion range at 77.5 percent, consistent with the prior month's print and limited evidence of sustained reversal in import demand or export momentum. Broader factors, including persistent goods import volumes and seasonal patterns, continue to support this consensus while leaving modest probability on adjacent bands pending the final figures.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Wolumen
$7,836Data zakończenia
Aug 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 29, 2026, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent May 2026 data showing the U.S. goods and services trade deficit widening sharply to $77.6 billion from a revised $54.6 billion in April has anchored trader expectations for June near that level. The advance goods deficit narrowed to $101.5 billion in June from $105.9 billion the prior month, reflecting lower imports and exports, yet the full balance—incorporating the services surplus—remains the resolution metric ahead of the August 4 BEA release. Market-implied odds heavily favor the 70-80 billion range at 77.5 percent, consistent with the prior month's print and limited evidence of sustained reversal in import demand or export momentum. Broader factors, including persistent goods import volumes and seasonal patterns, continue to support this consensus while leaving modest probability on adjacent bands pending the final figures.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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