Canada’s federal government has implemented successive reductions in temporary resident admissions through its 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, targeting a non-permanent resident share below 5 percent by the end of 2027. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections indicate these measures will produce flat overall population growth in 2026 as net outflows of non-permanent residents largely offset the 380,000 permanent resident target. Statistics Canada data already recorded the first annual national decline on record in 2025, driven by the same policy shift. Traders therefore assign a 60 percent probability that any 2026 change will fall short of that prior drop, reflecting the stabilizing effect of lower inflows and continued outflows amid housing and service pressures.