David Crowley secured the Wisconsin Democratic nomination for governor on August 11 with a razor-thin 0.4-point margin over Francesca Hong after final tallies showed him at 39.8 percent to her 39.4 percent. Late momentum from establishment endorsements, including from Governor Tony Evers, combined with Hong’s failure to consolidate progressive support in a multi-candidate field, produced the upset despite her double-digit polling lead days earlier. Hong’s concession eliminated any realistic recount path given the margin exceeded the 0.25-point threshold for an automatic or low-cost challenge. Official certification remains the final step, but only an unexpected revision to the certified vote totals could shift the outcome away from the sub-1-point bracket that currently dominates trader consensus.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCrowley <1% 98.5%
Crowley 1–2% <1%
Crowley 2–3% <1%
Crowley 3–4% <1%
$106,430 Wol.
$106,430 Wol.
Aug 13, 2026
Hong 6%+
<1%
Hong 5–6%
<1%
Hong 4–5%
<1%
Hong 3–4%
<1%
Hong 2–3%
<1%
Hong 1–2%
<1%
Hong <1%
<1%
Crowley <1%
99%
Crowley 1–2%
<1%
Crowley 2–3%
<1%
Crowley 3–4%
<1%
Crowley 4–5%
<1%
Crowley 5–6%
<1%
Crowley 6%+
<1%
Crowley <1% 98.5%
Crowley 1–2% <1%
Crowley 2–3% <1%
Crowley 3–4% <1%
$106,430 Wol.
$106,430 Wol.
Aug 13, 2026
Hong 6%+
$13,198 Wol.
<1%
Hong 5–6%
$3,714 Wol.
<1%
Hong 4–5%
$3,377 Wol.
<1%
Hong 3–4%
$11,011 Wol.
<1%
Hong 2–3%
$2,738 Wol.
<1%
Hong 1–2%
$8,472 Wol.
<1%
Hong <1%
$4,537 Wol.
<1%
Crowley <1%
$18,969 Wol.
99%
Crowley 1–2%
$11,795 Wol.
<1%
Crowley 2–3%
$9,905 Wol.
<1%
Crowley 3–4%
$9,013 Wol.
<1%
Crowley 4–5%
$2,286 Wol.
<1%
Crowley 5–6%
$3,312 Wol.
<1%
Crowley 6%+
$4,102 Wol.
<1%
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.David Crowley secured the Wisconsin Democratic nomination for governor on August 11 with a razor-thin 0.4-point margin over Francesca Hong after final tallies showed him at 39.8 percent to her 39.4 percent. Late momentum from establishment endorsements, including from Governor Tony Evers, combined with Hong’s failure to consolidate progressive support in a multi-candidate field, produced the upset despite her double-digit polling lead days earlier. Hong’s concession eliminated any realistic recount path given the margin exceeded the 0.25-point threshold for an automatic or low-cost challenge. Official certification remains the final step, but only an unexpected revision to the certified vote totals could shift the outcome away from the sub-1-point bracket that currently dominates trader consensus.
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 11, 2026, 10:03 PM ET
Wolumen
$106,430Data zakończenia
Aug 12, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 11, 2026, 10:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.David Crowley secured the Wisconsin Democratic nomination for governor on August 11 with a razor-thin 0.4-point margin over Francesca Hong after final tallies showed him at 39.8 percent to her 39.4 percent. Late momentum from establishment endorsements, including from Governor Tony Evers, combined with Hong’s failure to consolidate progressive support in a multi-candidate field, produced the upset despite her double-digit polling lead days earlier. Hong’s concession eliminated any realistic recount path given the margin exceeded the 0.25-point threshold for an automatic or low-cost challenge. Official certification remains the final step, but only an unexpected revision to the certified vote totals could shift the outcome away from the sub-1-point bracket that currently dominates trader consensus.
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Wolumen
$106,430Data zakończenia
Aug 12, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 11, 2026, 10:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...David Crowley secured the Wisconsin Democratic nomination for governor on August 11 with a razor-thin 0.4-point margin over Francesca Hong after final tallies showed him at 39.8 percent to her 39.4 percent. Late momentum from establishment endorsements, including from Governor Tony Evers, combined with Hong’s failure to consolidate progressive support in a multi-candidate field, produced the upset despite her double-digit polling lead days earlier. Hong’s concession eliminated any realistic recount path given the margin exceeded the 0.25-point threshold for an automatic or low-cost challenge. Official certification remains the final step, but only an unexpected revision to the certified vote totals could shift the outcome away from the sub-1-point bracket that currently dominates trader consensus.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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