Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford's commanding trader consensus at 92.5% in the AR-01 House race reflects the district's strong R+23 Cook PVI, rural agricultural base in northeast Arkansas, and his unchallenged path through the March 3 Republican primary, securing renomination for an eighth term. Challenger Terri Yarbrough Green, a retired pathologist, emerged unopposed from the Democratic primary but trails significantly in early fundraising reports, with Crawford's campaign far outpacing opponents as of mid-April. No public polling shows competitiveness, aligning with historical blowout margins for the GOP in this safe seat. Scenarios to shift odds include a major Crawford scandal, health issue, or massive national Democratic midterm wave, though structural barriers remain high ahead of the November 3 general election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição para a Câmara AR-01
Vencedor da eleição para a Câmara AR-01
$18,687 Vol.
$18,687 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
93%
Partido Democrata
6%
$18,687 Vol.
$18,687 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$11,115 Vol.
93%
Partido Democrata
$7,571 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford's commanding trader consensus at 92.5% in the AR-01 House race reflects the district's strong R+23 Cook PVI, rural agricultural base in northeast Arkansas, and his unchallenged path through the March 3 Republican primary, securing renomination for an eighth term. Challenger Terri Yarbrough Green, a retired pathologist, emerged unopposed from the Democratic primary but trails significantly in early fundraising reports, with Crawford's campaign far outpacing opponents as of mid-April. No public polling shows competitiveness, aligning with historical blowout margins for the GOP in this safe seat. Scenarios to shift odds include a major Crawford scandal, health issue, or massive national Democratic midterm wave, though structural barriers remain high ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$18,687Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford's commanding trader consensus at 92.5% in the AR-01 House race reflects the district's strong R+23 Cook PVI, rural agricultural base in northeast Arkansas, and his unchallenged path through the March 3 Republican primary, securing renomination for an eighth term. Challenger Terri Yarbrough Green, a retired pathologist, emerged unopposed from the Democratic primary but trails significantly in early fundraising reports, with Crawford's campaign far outpacing opponents as of mid-April. No public polling shows competitiveness, aligning with historical blowout margins for the GOP in this safe seat. Scenarios to shift odds include a major Crawford scandal, health issue, or massive national Democratic midterm wave, though structural barriers remain high ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$18,687Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford's commanding trader consensus at 92.5% in the AR-01 House race reflects the district's strong R+23 Cook PVI, rural agricultural base in northeast Arkansas, and his unchallenged path through the March 3 Republican primary, securing renomination for an eighth term. Challenger Terri Yarbrough Green, a retired pathologist, emerged unopposed from the Democratic primary but trails significantly in early fundraising reports, with Crawford's campaign far outpacing opponents as of mid-April. No public polling shows competitiveness, aligning with historical blowout margins for the GOP in this safe seat. Scenarios to shift odds include a major Crawford scandal, health issue, or massive national Democratic midterm wave, though structural barriers remain high ahead of the November 3 general election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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