The December 6, 2026, legislative election in Guinea-Bissau follows the August 2026 constitutional referendum that passed with roughly 70% approval and introduced major structural changes, including a smaller 65-seat parliament and fewer electoral districts. Multiple smaller parties, including FREPASNA and the Republican Platform “Nô Kumpu Guiné,” are competing in a fragmented field after the 2025 elections were annulled by the prior coup and major opposition groups largely sat out the referendum. The close implied probabilities reflect this dispersion of support, limited recent polling data, and ongoing questions about voter mobilization, candidate eligibility rules, and how the transitional authorities will conduct the vote under the new framework. Key upcoming factors include any late alliances, official campaign developments, or shifts in participation that could consolidate backing ahead of polling day.