Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble models point to a daily maximum of 24–25 °C in Chongqing on May 17, with light rain and persistent low-level moisture limiting afternoon heating despite southerly flow bringing modest warmth. This consensus, consistent with the market’s heavy weighting toward the 24 °C outcome, reflects minimal spread in boundary-layer mixing and cloud-cover projections. The long-term May average high near 26 °C provides climatological context, yet today’s guidance indicates slightly cooler conditions than recent days, with official resolution at the Jiangbei International Airport station. Traders are watching overnight model updates for any shifts in precipitation timing that could alter the peak by a degree or two.