Ensemble forecasts from regional models place Chongqing’s May 17 maximum near 25 °C, reflecting a balance of southerly flow advecting warm, moist air from the South China Sea and modest low-level cloud cover that caps afternoon heating in the Sichuan Basin. Light rain and elevated humidity suppress the diurnal temperature range, while variable boundary-layer mixing and weak high pressure steer the outcome toward 24–26 °C. These tightly clustered probabilities mirror model consensus on modest instability and limited insolation, with any shift in cloud timing or wind speed able to tip the daily high by one degree. Official observations from the China Meteorological Administration will resolve the market.