Ensemble forecasts from the Met Office and ECMWF currently center London’s maximum temperature on May 18 near 14–16 °C, positioning 15 °C as the market’s leading outcome amid an unsettled Atlantic low-pressure system that favors modest daytime highs with scattered showers. This scientific consensus, drawn from the latest model runs, aligns with typical mid-May conditions under cyclonic flow, where daytime peaks rarely exceed seasonal averages without strong high-pressure influence. Traders are assigning the highest implied probability to 15 °C because ensemble means and spreads cluster tightly around that value, though minor shifts in the low’s track could nudge readings toward 14 °C or 16 °C before resolution at London City Airport. Updated guidance expected overnight will likely refine these probabilities ahead of tomorrow’s peak.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Londres no dia 18 de maio?
Temperatura mais alta em Londres no dia 18 de maio?
15°C 41%
16°C 27%
14°C 21%
17°C 6.8%
NOVO
$39,753 Vol.
NOVO
$39,753 Vol.
18 mai 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
5%
14°C
21%
15°C
41%
16°C
27%
17°C
7%
18°C or higher
1%
15°C 41%
16°C 27%
14°C 21%
17°C 6.8%
NOVO
$39,753 Vol.
NOVO
$39,753 Vol.
18 mai 2026
8°C or below
$1,791 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$6,300 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$1,833 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$1,553 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$2,737 Vol.
1%
13°C
$4,237 Vol.
5%
14°C
$3,055 Vol.
21%
15°C
$3,750 Vol.
41%
16°C
$5,005 Vol.
27%
17°C
$3,814 Vol.
7%
18°C or higher
$5,689 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecasts from the Met Office and ECMWF currently center London’s maximum temperature on May 18 near 14–16 °C, positioning 15 °C as the market’s leading outcome amid an unsettled Atlantic low-pressure system that favors modest daytime highs with scattered showers. This scientific consensus, drawn from the latest model runs, aligns with typical mid-May conditions under cyclonic flow, where daytime peaks rarely exceed seasonal averages without strong high-pressure influence. Traders are assigning the highest implied probability to 15 °C because ensemble means and spreads cluster tightly around that value, though minor shifts in the low’s track could nudge readings toward 14 °C or 16 °C before resolution at London City Airport. Updated guidance expected overnight will likely refine these probabilities ahead of tomorrow’s peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$39,753Data de Término
18 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecasts from the Met Office and ECMWF currently center London’s maximum temperature on May 18 near 14–16 °C, positioning 15 °C as the market’s leading outcome amid an unsettled Atlantic low-pressure system that favors modest daytime highs with scattered showers. This scientific consensus, drawn from the latest model runs, aligns with typical mid-May conditions under cyclonic flow, where daytime peaks rarely exceed seasonal averages without strong high-pressure influence. Traders are assigning the highest implied probability to 15 °C because ensemble means and spreads cluster tightly around that value, though minor shifts in the low’s track could nudge readings toward 14 °C or 16 °C before resolution at London City Airport. Updated guidance expected overnight will likely refine these probabilities ahead of tomorrow’s peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$39,753Data de Término
18 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCEnsemble forecasts from the Met Office and ECMWF currently center London’s maximum temperature on May 18 near 14–16 °C, positioning 15 °C as the market’s leading outcome amid an unsettled Atlantic low-pressure system that favors modest daytime highs with scattered showers. This scientific consensus, drawn from the latest model runs, aligns with typical mid-May conditions under cyclonic flow, where daytime peaks rarely exceed seasonal averages without strong high-pressure influence. Traders are assigning the highest implied probability to 15 °C because ensemble means and spreads cluster tightly around that value, though minor shifts in the low’s track could nudge readings toward 14 °C or 16 °C before resolution at London City Airport. Updated guidance expected overnight will likely refine these probabilities ahead of tomorrow’s peak.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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