Recent PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila project a daytime high of 33°C on May 18 under partly cloudy skies with a 30% rain chance and easterly winds, anchoring trader consensus around 33–35°C outcomes that together exceed 85% implied probability. This aligns with mid-May climatology in the region, where high solar insolation and low humidity typically produce maxima of 32–35°C before the southwest monsoon strengthens. Model consensus shows limited intensification potential due to persistent cloud cover and diurnal cooling to the mid-20s overnight, reducing odds for extremes above 36°C. Final resolution depends on official readings at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport station, with updated guidance expected from the agency later today.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Manila em 18 de maio?
34°C 37%
35°C 27%
33°C 24%
36°C 8.8%
29°C ou menos
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
4%
33°C
24%
34°C
37%
35°C
27%
36°C
9%
37°C
2%
38°C
1%
39°C ou mais
<1%
34°C 37%
35°C 27%
33°C 24%
36°C 8.8%
29°C ou menos
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
4%
33°C
24%
34°C
37%
35°C
27%
36°C
9%
37°C
2%
38°C
1%
39°C ou mais
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: May 16, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLRecent PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila project a daytime high of 33°C on May 18 under partly cloudy skies with a 30% rain chance and easterly winds, anchoring trader consensus around 33–35°C outcomes that together exceed 85% implied probability. This aligns with mid-May climatology in the region, where high solar insolation and low humidity typically produce maxima of 32–35°C before the southwest monsoon strengthens. Model consensus shows limited intensification potential due to persistent cloud cover and diurnal cooling to the mid-20s overnight, reducing odds for extremes above 36°C. Final resolution depends on official readings at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport station, with updated guidance expected from the agency later today.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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