Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Shenzhen's highest temperature reaching exactly 28°C on May 15, driven by the latest short-range forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models like ECMWF and GFS, which converge on a daytime peak of 28°C amid persistent moderate rain and thick cloud cover from a low-pressure trough over Guangdong Province. Current observations from the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport station— the market's resolution source—align with this, showing morning temperatures in the low 20s°C rising slowly under humid, overcast conditions cooler than the typical May high of 29.5°C. This positioning reflects high-confidence model agreement on suppressed solar heating, though a realistic challenge could arise from unexpected afternoon clearing allowing a brief 1°C spike to 29°C before evening showers resume; final hourly data releases expected later today could confirm resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Shenzhen em 15 de maio?
28°C 100.0%
20°C ou menos <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$61,220 Vol.
$61,220 Vol.
20°C ou menos
Não
21°C
Não
22°C
Não
23°C
Não
24°C
Não
25°C
Não
26°C
Não
27°C
Não
28°C
Sim
29°C
Não
30°C ou mais
Não
28°C 100.0%
20°C ou menos <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$61,220 Vol.
$61,220 Vol.
20°C ou menos
Não
21°C
Não
22°C
Não
23°C
Não
24°C
Não
25°C
Não
26°C
Não
27°C
Não
28°C
Sim
29°C
Não
30°C ou mais
Não
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: May 13, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Sim
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Sim
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Sim
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Sim
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Shenzhen's highest temperature reaching exactly 28°C on May 15, driven by the latest short-range forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models like ECMWF and GFS, which converge on a daytime peak of 28°C amid persistent moderate rain and thick cloud cover from a low-pressure trough over Guangdong Province. Current observations from the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport station— the market's resolution source—align with this, showing morning temperatures in the low 20s°C rising slowly under humid, overcast conditions cooler than the typical May high of 29.5°C. This positioning reflects high-confidence model agreement on suppressed solar heating, though a realistic challenge could arise from unexpected afternoon clearing allowing a brief 1°C spike to 29°C before evening showers resume; final hourly data releases expected later today could confirm resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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