A strengthening high-pressure ridge over the Kanto plain is driving trader consensus toward a maximum of 28°C or higher in Tokyo on May 18, with current Japan Meteorological Agency model guidance and ensemble clusters projecting clear skies, light southerly flow, and robust afternoon insolation. This synoptic setup favors temperatures several degrees above the mid-May climatological average of 23–25°C, while historical analogs under similar ridging patterns have frequently produced upper-20s highs. Minimal model spread and the absence of significant cloud cover or frontal activity reinforce the 72% market-implied probability for the leading outcome, with only narrow windows for downward revision from final surface observations or localized cooling overnight.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Tóquio no dia 18 de maio?
Temperatura mais alta em Tóquio no dia 18 de maio?
28°C or higher 73%
27°C 22%
26°C 5.0%
25°C <1%
NOVO
$40,564 Vol.
NOVO
$40,564 Vol.
18 mai 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
5%
27°C
22%
28°C or higher
73%
28°C or higher 73%
27°C 22%
26°C 5.0%
25°C <1%
NOVO
$40,564 Vol.
NOVO
$40,564 Vol.
18 mai 2026
18°C or below
$3,106 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$1,432 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,081 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,264 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,918 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$2,398 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$15,812 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$3,710 Vol.
1%
26°C
$3,766 Vol.
5%
27°C
$2,349 Vol.
22%
28°C or higher
$3,729 Vol.
73%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.A strengthening high-pressure ridge over the Kanto plain is driving trader consensus toward a maximum of 28°C or higher in Tokyo on May 18, with current Japan Meteorological Agency model guidance and ensemble clusters projecting clear skies, light southerly flow, and robust afternoon insolation. This synoptic setup favors temperatures several degrees above the mid-May climatological average of 23–25°C, while historical analogs under similar ridging patterns have frequently produced upper-20s highs. Minimal model spread and the absence of significant cloud cover or frontal activity reinforce the 72% market-implied probability for the leading outcome, with only narrow windows for downward revision from final surface observations or localized cooling overnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$40,564Data de Término
18 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.A strengthening high-pressure ridge over the Kanto plain is driving trader consensus toward a maximum of 28°C or higher in Tokyo on May 18, with current Japan Meteorological Agency model guidance and ensemble clusters projecting clear skies, light southerly flow, and robust afternoon insolation. This synoptic setup favors temperatures several degrees above the mid-May climatological average of 23–25°C, while historical analogs under similar ridging patterns have frequently produced upper-20s highs. Minimal model spread and the absence of significant cloud cover or frontal activity reinforce the 72% market-implied probability for the leading outcome, with only narrow windows for downward revision from final surface observations or localized cooling overnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$40,564Data de Término
18 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTA strengthening high-pressure ridge over the Kanto plain is driving trader consensus toward a maximum of 28°C or higher in Tokyo on May 18, with current Japan Meteorological Agency model guidance and ensemble clusters projecting clear skies, light southerly flow, and robust afternoon insolation. This synoptic setup favors temperatures several degrees above the mid-May climatological average of 23–25°C, while historical analogs under similar ridging patterns have frequently produced upper-20s highs. Minimal model spread and the absence of significant cloud cover or frontal activity reinforce the 72% market-implied probability for the leading outcome, with only narrow windows for downward revision from final surface observations or localized cooling overnight.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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