Elevated preliminary tornado reports through mid-May 2026, exceeding 530 confirmed events across 27 states with notable outbreaks in the Midwest and Southeast, have positioned the 1250+ outcome as the dominant market-implied probability. The Storm Prediction Center, or SPC, has documented an unusually active start, including multiple enhanced-risk days and an EF3 in Oklahoma, outpacing the 1991–2020 climatological average for the first four months. This pace, combined with May’s typical peak under northward-shifting jet-stream patterns and ongoing conditional intensity forecasts, supports trader consensus for a full-year total well above the long-term mean of roughly 1,200–1,300. Updated SPC convective outlooks and June–August model guidance will provide the next key data points for refining seasonal projections.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuantos Tornados nos EUA em 2026?
Quantos Tornados nos EUA em 2026?
1250+ 78%
<950 5.1%
1200–1249 4.0%
1150–1199 3.9%
$72,212 Vol.
$72,212 Vol.
10 jan 2027
<950
5%
950–999
3%
1000–1049
1%
1050–1099
4%
1100–1149
3%
1150–1199
4%
1200–1249
17%
1250+
78%
1250+ 78%
<950 5.1%
1200–1249 4.0%
1150–1199 3.9%
$72,212 Vol.
$72,212 Vol.
10 jan 2027
<950
$22,427 Vol.
5%
950–999
$2,976 Vol.
3%
1000–1049
$2,424 Vol.
1%
1050–1099
$7,841 Vol.
4%
1100–1149
$2,041 Vol.
3%
1150–1199
$2,650 Vol.
4%
1200–1249
$15,173 Vol.
17%
1250+
$16,681 Vol.
78%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Elevated preliminary tornado reports through mid-May 2026, exceeding 530 confirmed events across 27 states with notable outbreaks in the Midwest and Southeast, have positioned the 1250+ outcome as the dominant market-implied probability. The Storm Prediction Center, or SPC, has documented an unusually active start, including multiple enhanced-risk days and an EF3 in Oklahoma, outpacing the 1991–2020 climatological average for the first four months. This pace, combined with May’s typical peak under northward-shifting jet-stream patterns and ongoing conditional intensity forecasts, supports trader consensus for a full-year total well above the long-term mean of roughly 1,200–1,300. Updated SPC convective outlooks and June–August model guidance will provide the next key data points for refining seasonal projections.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volume
$72,212Data de Término
10 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Elevated preliminary tornado reports through mid-May 2026, exceeding 530 confirmed events across 27 states with notable outbreaks in the Midwest and Southeast, have positioned the 1250+ outcome as the dominant market-implied probability. The Storm Prediction Center, or SPC, has documented an unusually active start, including multiple enhanced-risk days and an EF3 in Oklahoma, outpacing the 1991–2020 climatological average for the first four months. This pace, combined with May’s typical peak under northward-shifting jet-stream patterns and ongoing conditional intensity forecasts, supports trader consensus for a full-year total well above the long-term mean of roughly 1,200–1,300. Updated SPC convective outlooks and June–August model guidance will provide the next key data points for refining seasonal projections.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$72,212Data de Término
10 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated preliminary tornado reports through mid-May 2026, exceeding 530 confirmed events across 27 states with notable outbreaks in the Midwest and Southeast, have positioned the 1250+ outcome as the dominant market-implied probability. The Storm Prediction Center, or SPC, has documented an unusually active start, including multiple enhanced-risk days and an EF3 in Oklahoma, outpacing the 1991–2020 climatological average for the first four months. This pace, combined with May’s typical peak under northward-shifting jet-stream patterns and ongoing conditional intensity forecasts, supports trader consensus for a full-year total well above the long-term mean of roughly 1,200–1,300. Updated SPC convective outlooks and June–August model guidance will provide the next key data points for refining seasonal projections.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions