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icon for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?

icon for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?

mai 15

mai 16

mai 17

mai 18

mai 15

mai 16

mai 17

mai 18

25°C 99.9%

18°C ou menos <1%

23°C <1%

26°C <1%

Polymarket

$63,971 Vol.

25°C 99.9%

18°C ou menos <1%

23°C <1%

26°C <1%

Polymarket

$63,971 Vol.

18°C ou menos

$2,541 Vol.

<1%

19°C

$2,325 Vol.

<1%

20°C

$2,408 Vol.

<1%

21°C

$2,288 Vol.

<1%

22°C

$3,899 Vol.

<1%

23°C

$5,193 Vol.

<1%

24°C

$12,287 Vol.

<1%

25°C

$8,673 Vol.

100%

26°C

$12,015 Vol.

<1%

27°C

$8,229 Vol.

<1%

28°C or higher

$4,112 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market-implied odds overwhelmingly favor 25°C as Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on May 15 because official Hong Kong Observatory data recorded a minimum of exactly that value overnight under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions. Mid-May climatology typically produces nighttime lows of 24–26°C, and no cold-air intrusions or enhanced cloud cover altered the expected diurnal range. Traders therefore treat the observatory’s verified reading as the decisive resolution criterion, leaving only negligible room for alternative outcomes. Minor station-to-station differences remain possible but are unlikely to shift the official minimum outside the 25°C threshold once final quality-controlled values are released.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$63,971
Data de Término
15 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market-implied odds overwhelmingly favor 25°C as Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on May 15 because official Hong Kong Observatory data recorded a minimum of exactly that value overnight under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions. Mid-May climatology typically produces nighttime lows of 24–26°C, and no cold-air intrusions or enhanced cloud cover altered the expected diurnal range. Traders therefore treat the observatory’s verified reading as the decisive resolution criterion, leaving only negligible room for alternative outcomes. Minor station-to-station differences remain possible but are unlikely to shift the official minimum outside the 25°C threshold once final quality-controlled values are released.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$63,971
Data de Término
15 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "25°C" at 100%, followed by "18°C ou menos" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?" has generated $64K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 11, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?" is "25°C" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "18°C ou menos" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.