Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Brazil’s INMET/CPTEC models indicate a peak temperature near 23–28°C for São Paulo on May 17, driven by a persistent subtropical ridge advecting warmer air masses with limited frontal passage. This setup supports the market’s 75% implied probability on 23°C or higher, well above the city’s May climatological average high of 22–23°C at São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport. Light winds and partial cloud cover are expected to reduce nocturnal cooling, while historical analogs from early-to-mid May show similar synoptic patterns rarely producing highs below 23°C absent an unexpected cold front. Updated model runs scheduled for tomorrow morning will provide final guidance ahead of resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em São Paulo no dia 17 de maio?
Temperatura mais alta em São Paulo no dia 17 de maio?
23°C or higher 76%
22°C 18%
21°C 3.6%
20°C 3.0%
NOVO
$12,970 Vol.
NOVO
$12,970 Vol.
17 mai 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
3%
21°C
4%
22°C
18%
23°C or higher
76%
23°C or higher 76%
22°C 18%
21°C 3.6%
20°C 3.0%
NOVO
$12,970 Vol.
NOVO
$12,970 Vol.
17 mai 2026
13°C or below
$1,439 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$690 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$1,005 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$1,446 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$941 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$1,439 Vol.
1%
19°C
$758 Vol.
1%
20°C
$1,006 Vol.
3%
21°C
$930 Vol.
4%
22°C
$915 Vol.
18%
23°C or higher
$2,406 Vol.
76%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Brazil’s INMET/CPTEC models indicate a peak temperature near 23–28°C for São Paulo on May 17, driven by a persistent subtropical ridge advecting warmer air masses with limited frontal passage. This setup supports the market’s 75% implied probability on 23°C or higher, well above the city’s May climatological average high of 22–23°C at São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport. Light winds and partial cloud cover are expected to reduce nocturnal cooling, while historical analogs from early-to-mid May show similar synoptic patterns rarely producing highs below 23°C absent an unexpected cold front. Updated model runs scheduled for tomorrow morning will provide final guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$12,970Data de Término
17 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Brazil’s INMET/CPTEC models indicate a peak temperature near 23–28°C for São Paulo on May 17, driven by a persistent subtropical ridge advecting warmer air masses with limited frontal passage. This setup supports the market’s 75% implied probability on 23°C or higher, well above the city’s May climatological average high of 22–23°C at São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport. Light winds and partial cloud cover are expected to reduce nocturnal cooling, while historical analogs from early-to-mid May show similar synoptic patterns rarely producing highs below 23°C absent an unexpected cold front. Updated model runs scheduled for tomorrow morning will provide final guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$12,970Data de Término
17 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRRecent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Brazil’s INMET/CPTEC models indicate a peak temperature near 23–28°C for São Paulo on May 17, driven by a persistent subtropical ridge advecting warmer air masses with limited frontal passage. This setup supports the market’s 75% implied probability on 23°C or higher, well above the city’s May climatological average high of 22–23°C at São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport. Light winds and partial cloud cover are expected to reduce nocturnal cooling, while historical analogs from early-to-mid May show similar synoptic patterns rarely producing highs below 23°C absent an unexpected cold front. Updated model runs scheduled for tomorrow morning will provide final guidance ahead of resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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