Forecast ensembles from the ECMWF and GFS models show tight convergence on an overnight low of 19°C for Shanghai on May 17, directly supporting the market’s 99.4% implied probability for that outcome. Mid-May climatology under neutral spring conditions typically produces Shanghai minima between 17°C and 21°C, shaped by East Asian monsoon maritime air and variable cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. A persistent high-pressure ridge could nudge readings slightly higher, while a passing weak trough or enhanced sea-breeze advection might trim the low by one degree. Traders monitor the next China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF runs for shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind patterns ahead of final resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em Xangai em 17 de maio?
19°C 99.4%
20°C <1%
18°C <1%
16°C <1%
$11,079 Vol.
$11,079 Vol.
14°C ou menos
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
99%
20°C
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C ou mais
<1%
19°C 99.4%
20°C <1%
18°C <1%
16°C <1%
$11,079 Vol.
$11,079 Vol.
14°C ou menos
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
99%
20°C
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C ou mais
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDForecast ensembles from the ECMWF and GFS models show tight convergence on an overnight low of 19°C for Shanghai on May 17, directly supporting the market’s 99.4% implied probability for that outcome. Mid-May climatology under neutral spring conditions typically produces Shanghai minima between 17°C and 21°C, shaped by East Asian monsoon maritime air and variable cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. A persistent high-pressure ridge could nudge readings slightly higher, while a passing weak trough or enhanced sea-breeze advection might trim the low by one degree. Traders monitor the next China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF runs for shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind patterns ahead of final resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions