Incumbent Democrat Tim Kennedy enters the New York 26th congressional district race with a substantial structural edge rooted in the district's D+11 partisan voter index and his 65 percent share of the vote in the 2024 general election. The Buffalo-Niagara Falls area has delivered consistent Democratic margins in recent cycles, limiting the path for Republican challenger Dennis Hannon despite his primary candidacy. With the June 23 primaries now approaching and the November 3 general election still months away, trader consensus at 90.5 percent for the Democratic nominee reflects these baseline advantages and the absence of major recent developments capable of altering the balance. Only significant national shifts, a surprising primary outcome, or late-cycle events would realistically pressure the current implied probability before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição para a Câmara dos Deputados do NY-26
Vencedor da eleição para a Câmara dos Deputados do NY-26
$24,405 Vol.
$24,405 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
91%
Partido Republicano
9%
$24,405 Vol.
$24,405 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$12,910 Vol.
91%
Partido Republicano
$11,495 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Tim Kennedy enters the New York 26th congressional district race with a substantial structural edge rooted in the district's D+11 partisan voter index and his 65 percent share of the vote in the 2024 general election. The Buffalo-Niagara Falls area has delivered consistent Democratic margins in recent cycles, limiting the path for Republican challenger Dennis Hannon despite his primary candidacy. With the June 23 primaries now approaching and the November 3 general election still months away, trader consensus at 90.5 percent for the Democratic nominee reflects these baseline advantages and the absence of major recent developments capable of altering the balance. Only significant national shifts, a surprising primary outcome, or late-cycle events would realistically pressure the current implied probability before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$24,405Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Tim Kennedy enters the New York 26th congressional district race with a substantial structural edge rooted in the district's D+11 partisan voter index and his 65 percent share of the vote in the 2024 general election. The Buffalo-Niagara Falls area has delivered consistent Democratic margins in recent cycles, limiting the path for Republican challenger Dennis Hannon despite his primary candidacy. With the June 23 primaries now approaching and the November 3 general election still months away, trader consensus at 90.5 percent for the Democratic nominee reflects these baseline advantages and the absence of major recent developments capable of altering the balance. Only significant national shifts, a surprising primary outcome, or late-cycle events would realistically pressure the current implied probability before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$24,405Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Tim Kennedy enters the New York 26th congressional district race with a substantial structural edge rooted in the district's D+11 partisan voter index and his 65 percent share of the vote in the 2024 general election. The Buffalo-Niagara Falls area has delivered consistent Democratic margins in recent cycles, limiting the path for Republican challenger Dennis Hannon despite his primary candidacy. With the June 23 primaries now approaching and the November 3 general election still months away, trader consensus at 90.5 percent for the Democratic nominee reflects these baseline advantages and the absence of major recent developments capable of altering the balance. Only significant national shifts, a surprising primary outcome, or late-cycle events would realistically pressure the current implied probability before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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