In Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District, a deep-blue seat with Cook PVI D+40 where Kamala Harris won 88% in 2024, trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability for the November 3 general election winner. Longtime incumbent Dwight Evans's retirement created an open race, but no Republicans qualified for the May 19 primary ballot, leaving the district without a GOP nominee and ensuring the Democratic primary victor—likely from among frontrunners state Sen. Sharif Street, Rep. Chris Rabb, or Dr. Ala Stanford—faces negligible opposition. Recent debates over Gaza policy and fundraising have intensified the Democratic primary, yet the absence of a Republican challenger solidifies the hold. Scenarios like a viable GOP write-in surge, post-primary scandal, or extraordinary national midterm wave could challenge this, though historical precedents in such districts are rare.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição da casa PA-03
Vencedor da eleição da casa PA-03
$13,793 Vol.
$13,793 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
94%
Partido Republicano
6%
$13,793 Vol.
$13,793 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$7,891 Vol.
94%
Partido Republicano
$5,902 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).In Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District, a deep-blue seat with Cook PVI D+40 where Kamala Harris won 88% in 2024, trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability for the November 3 general election winner. Longtime incumbent Dwight Evans's retirement created an open race, but no Republicans qualified for the May 19 primary ballot, leaving the district without a GOP nominee and ensuring the Democratic primary victor—likely from among frontrunners state Sen. Sharif Street, Rep. Chris Rabb, or Dr. Ala Stanford—faces negligible opposition. Recent debates over Gaza policy and fundraising have intensified the Democratic primary, yet the absence of a Republican challenger solidifies the hold. Scenarios like a viable GOP write-in surge, post-primary scandal, or extraordinary national midterm wave could challenge this, though historical precedents in such districts are rare.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$13,793Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).In Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District, a deep-blue seat with Cook PVI D+40 where Kamala Harris won 88% in 2024, trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability for the November 3 general election winner. Longtime incumbent Dwight Evans's retirement created an open race, but no Republicans qualified for the May 19 primary ballot, leaving the district without a GOP nominee and ensuring the Democratic primary victor—likely from among frontrunners state Sen. Sharif Street, Rep. Chris Rabb, or Dr. Ala Stanford—faces negligible opposition. Recent debates over Gaza policy and fundraising have intensified the Democratic primary, yet the absence of a Republican challenger solidifies the hold. Scenarios like a viable GOP write-in surge, post-primary scandal, or extraordinary national midterm wave could challenge this, though historical precedents in such districts are rare.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$13,793Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...In Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District, a deep-blue seat with Cook PVI D+40 where Kamala Harris won 88% in 2024, trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability for the November 3 general election winner. Longtime incumbent Dwight Evans's retirement created an open race, but no Republicans qualified for the May 19 primary ballot, leaving the district without a GOP nominee and ensuring the Democratic primary victor—likely from among frontrunners state Sen. Sharif Street, Rep. Chris Rabb, or Dr. Ala Stanford—faces negligible opposition. Recent debates over Gaza policy and fundraising have intensified the Democratic primary, yet the absence of a Republican challenger solidifies the hold. Scenarios like a viable GOP write-in surge, post-primary scandal, or extraordinary national midterm wave could challenge this, though historical precedents in such districts are rare.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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