The closely contested trader consensus around a 51.5% chance of acquittal reflects the Philippine Senate’s current composition, where a substantial bloc aligned with Vice President Sara Duterte and her family makes reaching the constitutional two-thirds threshold of 16 votes difficult. The ongoing impeachment trial, now in its later stages with evidence focused on confidential funds, financial disclosures, and related articles, continues to test prosecutorial strength amid procedural disputes. Recent arguments before the Senate impeachment court from former Supreme Court justices on whether the vote requirement adjusts for detained or absent senator-judges have added uncertainty. Developments that could shift odds include a definitive ruling on the threshold, compelling new testimony or records, or any realignment among senator-judges before the December 31, 2026 resolution window.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoWill the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?
Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?
48% chance
$12,651 Vol.
$12,651 Vol.
30 dez 2026
48% chance
$12,651 Vol.
$12,651 Vol.
30 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.The closely contested trader consensus around a 51.5% chance of acquittal reflects the Philippine Senate’s current composition, where a substantial bloc aligned with Vice President Sara Duterte and her family makes reaching the constitutional two-thirds threshold of 16 votes difficult. The ongoing impeachment trial, now in its later stages with evidence focused on confidential funds, financial disclosures, and related articles, continues to test prosecutorial strength amid procedural disputes. Recent arguments before the Senate impeachment court from former Supreme Court justices on whether the vote requirement adjusts for detained or absent senator-judges have added uncertainty. Developments that could shift odds include a definitive ruling on the threshold, compelling new testimony or records, or any realignment among senator-judges before the December 31, 2026 resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
Mercado Aberto: May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ET
Volume
$12,651Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.The closely contested trader consensus around a 51.5% chance of acquittal reflects the Philippine Senate’s current composition, where a substantial bloc aligned with Vice President Sara Duterte and her family makes reaching the constitutional two-thirds threshold of 16 votes difficult. The ongoing impeachment trial, now in its later stages with evidence focused on confidential funds, financial disclosures, and related articles, continues to test prosecutorial strength amid procedural disputes. Recent arguments before the Senate impeachment court from former Supreme Court justices on whether the vote requirement adjusts for detained or absent senator-judges have added uncertainty. Developments that could shift odds include a definitive ruling on the threshold, compelling new testimony or records, or any realignment among senator-judges before the December 31, 2026 resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$12,651Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The closely contested trader consensus around a 51.5% chance of acquittal reflects the Philippine Senate’s current composition, where a substantial bloc aligned with Vice President Sara Duterte and her family makes reaching the constitutional two-thirds threshold of 16 votes difficult. The ongoing impeachment trial, now in its later stages with evidence focused on confidential funds, financial disclosures, and related articles, continues to test prosecutorial strength amid procedural disputes. Recent arguments before the Senate impeachment court from former Supreme Court justices on whether the vote requirement adjusts for detained or absent senator-judges have added uncertainty. Developments that could shift odds include a definitive ruling on the threshold, compelling new testimony or records, or any realignment among senator-judges before the December 31, 2026 resolution window.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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