The U.S. military operation in Venezuela on January 3, 2026, involved targeted strikes and a special forces capture of Nicolás Maduro rather than a sustained ground invasion or occupation. Subsequent U.S. actions have centered on maritime interdiction of suspected drug vessels, sanctions, and diplomatic pressure on migration and security issues with neighbors including Mexico. No comparable military escalations or announcements of ground campaigns have occurred through mid-August. Traders assign an 88.5% probability to no full invasion by year-end, reflecting the administration’s preference for limited strikes and economic tools over large-scale troop deployments, consistent with historical patterns of restraint once initial objectives are met.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
12% chance
$269,823 Vol.
$269,823 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
12% chance
$269,823 Vol.
$269,823 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The U.S. military operation in Venezuela on January 3, 2026, involved targeted strikes and a special forces capture of Nicolás Maduro rather than a sustained ground invasion or occupation. Subsequent U.S. actions have centered on maritime interdiction of suspected drug vessels, sanctions, and diplomatic pressure on migration and security issues with neighbors including Mexico. No comparable military escalations or announcements of ground campaigns have occurred through mid-August. Traders assign an 88.5% probability to no full invasion by year-end, reflecting the administration’s preference for limited strikes and economic tools over large-scale troop deployments, consistent with historical patterns of restraint once initial objectives are met.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ET
Volume
$269,823Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The U.S. military operation in Venezuela on January 3, 2026, involved targeted strikes and a special forces capture of Nicolás Maduro rather than a sustained ground invasion or occupation. Subsequent U.S. actions have centered on maritime interdiction of suspected drug vessels, sanctions, and diplomatic pressure on migration and security issues with neighbors including Mexico. No comparable military escalations or announcements of ground campaigns have occurred through mid-August. Traders assign an 88.5% probability to no full invasion by year-end, reflecting the administration’s preference for limited strikes and economic tools over large-scale troop deployments, consistent with historical patterns of restraint once initial objectives are met.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$269,823Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. military operation in Venezuela on January 3, 2026, involved targeted strikes and a special forces capture of Nicolás Maduro rather than a sustained ground invasion or occupation. Subsequent U.S. actions have centered on maritime interdiction of suspected drug vessels, sanctions, and diplomatic pressure on migration and security issues with neighbors including Mexico. No comparable military escalations or announcements of ground campaigns have occurred through mid-August. Traders assign an 88.5% probability to no full invasion by year-end, reflecting the administration’s preference for limited strikes and economic tools over large-scale troop deployments, consistent with historical patterns of restraint once initial objectives are met.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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