Trader consensus assigns a 97.4% implied probability that President Trump will not reduce the federal deficit before 2027, reflecting the market's assessment of fiscal policy direction under current legislative priorities. Recent budget frameworks emphasize extensions of 2017 tax provisions and higher defense outlays, both of which are projected by the Congressional Budget Office to widen annual shortfalls by hundreds of billions through 2026. Treasury yield curves and primary dealer surveys show limited expectation of offsetting revenue gains or spending restraint, while strong GDP growth has not translated into surplus-improving dynamics. Key catalysts ahead include the next debt-ceiling debate and mid-year revenue estimates. Tail-risk scenarios remain remote but could include an abrupt bipartisan spending cap agreement or a sharper-than-expected surge in corporate tax receipts from sustained expansion.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
Sim
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Trader consensus assigns a 97.4% implied probability that President Trump will not reduce the federal deficit before 2027, reflecting the market's assessment of fiscal policy direction under current legislative priorities. Recent budget frameworks emphasize extensions of 2017 tax provisions and higher defense outlays, both of which are projected by the Congressional Budget Office to widen annual shortfalls by hundreds of billions through 2026. Treasury yield curves and primary dealer surveys show limited expectation of offsetting revenue gains or spending restraint, while strong GDP growth has not translated into surplus-improving dynamics. Key catalysts ahead include the next debt-ceiling debate and mid-year revenue estimates. Tail-risk scenarios remain remote but could include an abrupt bipartisan spending cap agreement or a sharper-than-expected surge in corporate tax receipts from sustained expansion.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ET
Volume
$1,419Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Trader consensus assigns a 97.4% implied probability that President Trump will not reduce the federal deficit before 2027, reflecting the market's assessment of fiscal policy direction under current legislative priorities. Recent budget frameworks emphasize extensions of 2017 tax provisions and higher defense outlays, both of which are projected by the Congressional Budget Office to widen annual shortfalls by hundreds of billions through 2026. Treasury yield curves and primary dealer surveys show limited expectation of offsetting revenue gains or spending restraint, while strong GDP growth has not translated into surplus-improving dynamics. Key catalysts ahead include the next debt-ceiling debate and mid-year revenue estimates. Tail-risk scenarios remain remote but could include an abrupt bipartisan spending cap agreement or a sharper-than-expected surge in corporate tax receipts from sustained expansion.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Volume
$1,419Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns a 97.4% implied probability that President Trump will not reduce the federal deficit before 2027, reflecting the market's assessment of fiscal policy direction under current legislative priorities. Recent budget frameworks emphasize extensions of 2017 tax provisions and higher defense outlays, both of which are projected by the Congressional Budget Office to widen annual shortfalls by hundreds of billions through 2026. Treasury yield curves and primary dealer surveys show limited expectation of offsetting revenue gains or spending restraint, while strong GDP growth has not translated into surplus-improving dynamics. Key catalysts ahead include the next debt-ceiling debate and mid-year revenue estimates. Tail-risk scenarios remain remote but could include an abrupt bipartisan spending cap agreement or a sharper-than-expected surge in corporate tax receipts from sustained expansion.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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