Trader sentiment for another magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake hinges on global seismic quietude since the April 20, 2026, M7.4 event 100 km east-northeast of Miyako, Japan—the most recent per USGS records—with no M7+ quakes in the ensuing 23 days, aligning with historical averages of about 15 such events worldwide annually (roughly one every 24 days). USGS real-time monitoring via its global seismograph network shows no unusual swarms, foreshock sequences, or strain accumulation signals warranting elevated risk, underscoring earthquakes' inherent unpredictability on short timescales due to complex tectonic fault dynamics. Key resolution hinges on USGS final moment magnitude determinations; traders eye continuous catalog updates, with baseline Poisson-distributed probability governing expectations absent new data.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЕще 7,0 или выше землетрясение на...?
Еще 7,0 или выше землетрясение на...?
$23,592 Объем
31 мая 2026 г.
15 мая
15%
30 мая
51%
$23,592 Объем
15 мая
$2,700 Объем
15%
30 мая
$7,644 Объем
51%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader sentiment for another magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake hinges on global seismic quietude since the April 20, 2026, M7.4 event 100 km east-northeast of Miyako, Japan—the most recent per USGS records—with no M7+ quakes in the ensuing 23 days, aligning with historical averages of about 15 such events worldwide annually (roughly one every 24 days). USGS real-time monitoring via its global seismograph network shows no unusual swarms, foreshock sequences, or strain accumulation signals warranting elevated risk, underscoring earthquakes' inherent unpredictability on short timescales due to complex tectonic fault dynamics. Key resolution hinges on USGS final moment magnitude determinations; traders eye continuous catalog updates, with baseline Poisson-distributed probability governing expectations absent new data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Открытие рынка: Apr 21, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Объем
$23,592Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 21, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader sentiment for another magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake hinges on global seismic quietude since the April 20, 2026, M7.4 event 100 km east-northeast of Miyako, Japan—the most recent per USGS records—with no M7+ quakes in the ensuing 23 days, aligning with historical averages of about 15 such events worldwide annually (roughly one every 24 days). USGS real-time monitoring via its global seismograph network shows no unusual swarms, foreshock sequences, or strain accumulation signals warranting elevated risk, underscoring earthquakes' inherent unpredictability on short timescales due to complex tectonic fault dynamics. Key resolution hinges on USGS final moment magnitude determinations; traders eye continuous catalog updates, with baseline Poisson-distributed probability governing expectations absent new data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Объем
$23,592Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 21, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment for another magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake hinges on global seismic quietude since the April 20, 2026, M7.4 event 100 km east-northeast of Miyako, Japan—the most recent per USGS records—with no M7+ quakes in the ensuing 23 days, aligning with historical averages of about 15 such events worldwide annually (roughly one every 24 days). USGS real-time monitoring via its global seismograph network shows no unusual swarms, foreshock sequences, or strain accumulation signals warranting elevated risk, underscoring earthquakes' inherent unpredictability on short timescales due to complex tectonic fault dynamics. Key resolution hinges on USGS final moment magnitude determinations; traders eye continuous catalog updates, with baseline Poisson-distributed probability governing expectations absent new data.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы