Persistent cloud cover and elevated humidity from an approaching low-pressure trough are limiting overnight radiative cooling in Hong Kong, anchoring the minimum temperature near 24°C per the latest Hong Kong Observatory guidance. This setup aligns with mid-May climatology, where typical overnight lows cluster between 23°C and 26°C under moist southerly flow and high relative humidity. Trader positioning favors the 24°C outcome at 38% implied probability, followed closely by 23°C and 25°C, as the current pattern and urban heat-island effects at the official station reduce prospects for sharper drops. Short-range forecast updates through the overnight period will provide the final calibration before official recording.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая низкая температура в Гонконге 17 мая?
24°C 39%
23°C 27%
25°C 21%
26°C 12.6%
18°C или ниже
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
6%
23°C
27%
24°C
39%
25°C
19%
26°C
13%
27°C
1%
28°C или выше
1%
24°C 39%
23°C 27%
25°C 21%
26°C 12.6%
18°C или ниже
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
6%
23°C
27%
24°C
39%
25°C
19%
26°C
13%
27°C
1%
28°C или выше
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Persistent cloud cover and elevated humidity from an approaching low-pressure trough are limiting overnight radiative cooling in Hong Kong, anchoring the minimum temperature near 24°C per the latest Hong Kong Observatory guidance. This setup aligns with mid-May climatology, where typical overnight lows cluster between 23°C and 26°C under moist southerly flow and high relative humidity. Trader positioning favors the 24°C outcome at 38% implied probability, followed closely by 23°C and 25°C, as the current pattern and urban heat-island effects at the official station reduce prospects for sharper drops. Short-range forecast updates through the overnight period will provide the final calibration before official recording.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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