The newly confirmed Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in remote Ituri Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo—with 246 suspected cases and 65–80 deaths as of mid-May 2026—remains the central factor supporting the 84.5% market-implied probability against an emergency declaration by June 30. Official data from the WHO, Africa CDC, and DRC’s Institut National de Recherche Biomédicale show the cluster is geographically isolated, with rapid contact tracing and no evidence of sustained urban or cross-border transmission beyond one imported Ugandan case. Historical precedents from 16 prior DRC outbreaks demonstrate containment within weeks when response infrastructure activates early, and the Bundibugyo strain’s lower transmissibility relative to Zaire ebolavirus further reduces escalation risk. Ongoing surveillance updates from national laboratories and regional coordination meetings will provide the next key data points on case growth and international spread before the resolution window closes.