Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration indicate a low-pressure system and associated cloud cover over the Pearl River Delta will moderate daytime heating in Shenzhen on May 17, positioning 27–28°C as the most probable peak temperatures. Persistent rain and overcast skies limit solar radiation and evaporative cooling, keeping surface maxima below the May climatological average of 29–30°C while steering patterns prevent stronger subsidence warming. Model consensus from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System shows limited spread, with 26°C emerging if heavier precipitation arrives earlier and 29°C possible only under brief clearing. Official resolution relies on the highest recorded value at Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport, where even small shifts in timing of showers can separate the tightly clustered 26–28°C outcomes.