Recent model consensus from the Met Office and ECMWF points to overnight lows of 11–12°C in London on May 19, driven by a persistent southwesterly Atlantic airstream that maintains cloud cover and limits radiative cooling. This pattern suppresses sharp temperature drops that would otherwise occur under clear, calm conditions, while moderate winds further moderate minimum readings. Climatological baselines for mid-May hover between 7–9°C, yet the current warmer-than-average spring setup across northwest Europe has shifted probabilities toward the higher end of the distribution. Fresh forecast updates expected over the next 48 hours will refine wind and cloud timing, potentially sharpening the exact minimum.