Recent forecast runs from the Met Office and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts models show the overnight minimum in London reaching exactly 7 °C under clear skies and light winds that promote radiative cooling. This stable high-pressure regime, typical for mid-May, supports the 99.6 % market-implied probability and matches the long-term climatological baseline of 8–9 °C lows adjusted for the current synoptic pattern. Traders view any shift toward 6 °C or 8 °C as unlikely without unexpected cloud cover or wind changes, which official guidance does not currently indicate. The next model update cycle remains the key variable that could still alter resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая низкая температура в Лондоне 16 мая?
7°C 99.6%
5°C <1%
4°C <1%
6°C <1%
$20,370 Объем
$20,370 Объем
0°C или ниже
<1%
1°C
<1%
2°C
<1%
3°C
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
100%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C или выше
<1%
7°C 99.6%
5°C <1%
4°C <1%
6°C <1%
$20,370 Объем
$20,370 Объем
0°C или ниже
<1%
1°C
<1%
2°C
<1%
3°C
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
100%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C или выше
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCRecent forecast runs from the Met Office and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts models show the overnight minimum in London reaching exactly 7 °C under clear skies and light winds that promote radiative cooling. This stable high-pressure regime, typical for mid-May, supports the 99.6 % market-implied probability and matches the long-term climatological baseline of 8–9 °C lows adjusted for the current synoptic pattern. Traders view any shift toward 6 °C or 8 °C as unlikely without unexpected cloud cover or wind changes, which official guidance does not currently indicate. The next model update cycle remains the key variable that could still alter resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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